Been doing some thinking about this current presidential election & it has got me thinking.
Although I always believed that Trump would get a second term (& part of me still thinks he still might do), I believe that there are some very right wing, young (ish) US politicians who are looking at how this current end game is panning out & considering it to be a game plan for a future run for the presidency themselves.
The stand off over the transition is hurting the democrats badly (not having access to security/intelligence briefings puts Biden & the country as a whole at a massive disadvantage for a start).
I believe Trump will try (& probably succeed) in appointing yet more right wing judges, fast forward execution dates (catnip to his base), maybe try & prosecute/convict someone for having an abortion (not sure how that would work, but it would fire up his base), fracking/drilling & so on. There would be bedlam.
Someone, somewhere is watching this & thinking that with a few tweaks here & there, this is how future republican administrations will act.
As I said earlier, this lack of handover/transition makes it all the harder for the Biden/Harris administration to hit the ground running.
Just a few thoughts & I wonder if anyone here has any thoughts on the subject.
Something that has occurred to me is that the campaign in the next US election in November 2024 will, thanks to the fixed term parliament act and the large Tory majority, largely coincide with the next UK general election in December 2024. I’ll be interested to see how perceptions of the US affect the UK, where the Democrat candidate always seems to be much preferred.
The next GE is happening in May or June ’24 as I recall.
The last one was December 12 2019. Doesn’t the fixed term act mean the next one should be held on a Thursday close to 5 years from that date?
The fixed term parliament act has been overridden twice in the last 5 years.
If this PM (or his successor) were to read the tea leaves & see an advantage in going to the country early, the he/she would.
An excuse/ reason/justification would be found & an election would be called.
They can’t unilaterally call an election though. There needs to be a majority vote for it in Parliament.
Thursday 2nd May 2024.
although as Jack says, only one GE has so far taken place on it’s “fixed” date.
Thanks Moose. So a five year fixed term is actually ‘a little bit under four and a half’?
This time, yes. Also BloJo or Rishi or Pob or Priti or Nigel or whoever is PM can bring it forward or delay it by up to two months.
In short, five-year fixed-term Parliaments are not five-year fixed-term Parliaments at all.
Is that not because the December 2019 election was a “back me or sack me” election with the intent to secure a majority.
UK elections are usually the first Thursday in May so that could be the fixed point regardless of the date of the previous election
There’ll be local elections on that day too, which really are fixed term. Andy Burnham etc can’t pull that proroguing malarkey.
You may be thinking of council elections which are indeed the first Thursday in May
UK general elections (for parliamentary seats) can be any time with the most popular months including Feb, March, April, May, October or November
If you are talking about Supreme Court Judges their jobs are for life so unless Trump orders some murders…ah, see what you mean.
My own take is that Trump is not desperate to hold on to The Presidency because he really, really wants another four years of boring old State Matters interrupting his golf trips but the absolute panic that once outside the White House he’s going to get hit by an avalanche of lawsuits including his own bankruptcy.
Avalanche of Lawsuits – TMFTL.
Please.
Yeah. Even more than the panic thing – SDNY is a real threat cos it’s not federal and the president can’t pardon him – it’s also just grift: they’re milking the MAGA base like crazy for “support our legal fight” bullshit and paying off debt with it. Their legal team appears to be Rudy and that Jenna woman, so tbh most of the legal fees are probably being paid in scotch. The money is going straight into the Donald’s multi billion $ overdraft. Twat.
Rudy looks like a see-through placcy bag full of defrosted out-of-date squid. I’m expecting that (i.e. hoping) he croaks soon. Sorry if I have unintentionally offended anyone.
Trump reminds me of a little kid who used to live over the street. He was a spiteful little sod, throwing the board up in the air if he was losing, that kind of thing. I once saw him destroy one of his own toys to stop another little kids from playing with it. Trump isn’t going to be led to a courtroom willingly, he’d see the country burn first.
Having said that, I fully expect him to attempt negotiate indemnity from all future prosecutions, using some threat or other as leverage. If that fails, his next step would be to announce he is running in 2024 at the earliest opportunity, as he can then denounce any lawsuits as being political. And if that doesn’t help, it would be the time to whip up and mobilise his own, well armed private army!
No way Trump will stay President, not a hope in hell. As stated above Supreme Court judges stay for life. It is possible that Biden may try to increase the number and appoint some himself to balance it up a bit.
At present, Trump is in a massive sulk. He’s thrown a few public servants in the trash as an act of spite and threatened to bomb Iran but has focussed on golf and overturning the election. Like you, I fear that as the chances of succeeding with the latter recede, he’ll inflict more damage for the hell of it.
The best hope is that the voters in Georgia will be unimpressed enough with his behaviour to elect Democrats in the two senate seat run-offs in January.
Nevertheless, this transition, and the challenge to the election as a whole, has highlighted the weaknesses in the Amerian democratic process.
The Democrats need those two Senate seats if the USA is going to avoid something similar in 2024/28. They could rejig the electoral college, Senate representation, even adding a couple of states to the Federal Republic if they did hold the Senate, House and Whitehouse.
In the meantime, the nation’s demographic continues to change in the Democrats’ favour, despite an increase in the Latino vote share for Trump this time. Hopefully, Joe Biden will allay any fears of “socialism” during the next four years and the Black vote will be equally energised next time.
The truth is that Trump and the Republicans did surprisingly well in this election. Biden’s administration has a tough four years ahead of it.
Mitch McConnell will simply not put any Biden policy on to the senate floor.
Because he is a cunt.
That’s why the two Georgia run-offs are crucial.
Another one I’m casting the runes and the cards for, hoping for the Death symbols to appear. Sorry if I have unintentionally offended anyone.
There’s some dude with a scythe who’s deeply offended.
“I don’t fucking want him either”