A very rare event is happening at the moment in South-East Queensland: a cyclone has escaped from the tropics and is currently menacing just off the coast of Brisbane about 5-600km south of their normal range. It’s expected to move further south for a day or so then quickly jag right in a hairpin bend, intensify, and cross the coast right at Brisbane in a couple of days. The last cyclone to hit anywhere near here was in 1974 and that was considered a complete anomaly. Huge rainfall, destructive winds and severe coastal erosion are all being forecast.
I’ve been through a few cyclones when I lived in North Queensland years ago, but this is different. Infrastructure around here isn’t built for cyclones, and I now live in a house surrounded by trees.When I analyse why I feel so vulnerable this time, I guess it comes down to the fact that I now have a family and more assets. We are used to extreme rainfall events (as destructive as they are) but wind is something completely different.
The only good outcome is the now minuscule chance that it continues to the east away from the coast, otherwise it’s going to smash into the Sunshine Coast, Brisbane or Northern NSW (Byron Bay).
So, if you see it on the news, spare a thought for at least one Afterworder who is currently bricking it.

Here’s the not-particularly-uplifting forecast map:
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDQ65001.png?1740963431304
You’re not alone Podicle, I live in Brisbane too…
Well, best of luck.
Where do you live? I live in Highvale out past Samford, on the side of Mt Nebo.
Same to you mate, we’re in Holland Park. I’m originally from Leicester, so not used to this sort of stuff, I’ve just stocked up on toilet paper ! Hoping the Kristen Hersh gig on Wednesday is unaffected…
You may be lucky, but my work has just issued a stay home order from Wednesday, and I suspect schools will do the same. Air traffic in and out may be patchy.
Fingers crossed for you (we could use some rain down here – only 2mm since the start of December and all our dams are at their lowest levels in 30 years)
Wow. We have had buckets of rain since September. Can’t remember a wetter summer, in terms of number of wet days.
Yes, we’re bunkering down in northern NSW too. Fortunately we had a delivery of what looks like a year’s supply of bog paper last week, so we’re ok in that department. I’ve been working through the list of things to think about, and we’re also ok for cash (in case ATMs and tills go down), petrol, baked beans, pasta, fruit & veg etc. Dug out the radio. No whistle or glow sticks though. Mrs thep has been madly pruning in case trees get blown over.
Nothing to do now but wait. As with Pods in his neck of the woods, our houses aren’t built for cyclones. Wishing we’d strengthened the roof before the solar panes went on…the main worry though is floods. A fair number of people are still living in tents and caravans after the last floods 3 years ago. We’re safe (DV) but there’s a significant amount of trauma evident on the local Facebook group.
Good luck one and all!
Get a bunch of power packs for the phones and have them charged and new batteries for the tranny.
Good luck.
Turns out our tranny, which we bought about 5 years ago ahead of some event in Brisbane, is rubbish.
An old cassette radio often works well.
Don’t have one. Still, since I’ve just bought a solar phone charger might go looking for a better radio to go with it. Getting a bit late though.
Looks like a handy piece of kit. https://survival4future.com/collections/technical-devices/products/ultimate-wireless-waterproof-solar-powerbank-50-000-mah?campaign_id=23845381016500165&ad_id=23848056548290165&variant=43361483555080#looxReviews
Good luck all you Aussies
I have a wind up radio that I have somehow misplaced (how clever) and 2 battery power sources to power my CPAP machine for a few nights and charge phones.
Blimey guys best of luck with that!
Thanks Twang!
Same from me! Bloody hell – I thought it was windy the other day!
Fingers crossed that it passes you chaps by a comfortable distance…
It won’t. Updated modelling has it smashing straight into the coastal suburbs of north Brisbane, with the inland path essentially passing over my house. Wind is a big concern but they are predicting approx 100mm rain on each of Thursday, Friday and Saturday, possibly up to 600mm!
Usually the worst hit areas are to the south of the eye, so could possibly be worse.
Good grief…I hope that you and the family stay safe.
I do hope that all cencerned stay safe from the effects of cyclone Alfred. I have friends who live on Tamborine Mountain south of Brisbane. So, my thoughts are with them too.
Meanwhile, surfers are having a whale of a time.
I feel your pain
In late Jan, Ireland hit by biggest storm for almost 200 years.
Seen many big typhoons hit Hong Kong during all my years
there, but nothing quite like this
Wind speeds of 183Kms per hour and hundreds and hundreds
of trees felled – one of them a beautiful old Beech tree that had
stood on my family’s farm for god knows how long
Mote Park, a gorgeous reserve where I used to go and walk the dogs three or four
times a week on different trails was totally flattened.
People about a mile up the road from where I lived were without electrrcity and
water for almost two weeks
Sad to hear about beloved landscapes being changed. I remember reading about that storm in the 80s that wiped out a quarter of trees in southern England.
This won’t be anywhere near as bad. It’s a Cat 2 which is at the lower end of the scale.
There seems to be an inverse correlation – the more warnings and media frenzy, the less severe the impact.
On this basis expect a heavy shower 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
Take your pick.
Somewhere will cop it, probably the Gold Coast, but for Brisbane the difference between minimal and significant impact comes down to a landfall difference of 20-30km. If it hits level with or just south of Brisbane, we may miss the extreme rain.
But don’t you get the floods from the swollen rivers and the sea forcing water back inland.
Unlike the Brisbane coast, which has a measure of protection from the sand islands off the coast, the Gold Coast is unprotected and riddled with canal-side communities which are going to get an absolute hammering. What were they thinking? That’s Miami-level stupidity, even without a cyclone.
Sandbags are filled & ready to be put in position…
Following this closely. I have friends in Brisbane.
Before a cyclone there’s usually some very nice waves.
Update is that this cyclone is taking its sweet time, ambling towards the coast at walking speed and even doing a loop-de-loop last night. It was meant to hit tonight (Thursday) but now pushed back to Sat morning. Brisbane today was quite pleasant with a few gusts and some sprinkles of rain.
On the Gold Coast, however (about 100km south) the beaches are getting slammed and a 14.5m wave was recorded. Northern NSW is already flooding (hope you are going OK Mike!).
OK so far thanks, though folks are already evacuating in outlying villages along the Tweed. Poor old Lismore is copping it again too.
Slow hand claps yet?
So a cyclone and antipodean fauna in the one story. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-07/koalas-behaving-really-weird-as-cyclone-alfred-bears-down/105025594?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link
We get nothing like that here in Sweden. But a few weeks ago we did have a major snowstorm and few mega pile ups.
Good luck, guys. I’ll be thinking about you all in the next few days.
*tapping sound*
Hi there Oz-folk, how is it going down there? Haven’t heard any more news for the last 2 days.., beginning to worry about you all.
We’ve come through ok down here in northern NSW, thanks for asking. There was a lot of wind but not full cyclone strength, and a fuck of a lot of rain, not far south of 500mm over the past few days. But flooding is nowhere near as bad as 2022, although folks who are actually flooded won’t agree. Lot of roads cut though, and there will be landslips a-gogo.
Mrs thep had stashed a couple of large cardboard tubes under the house, and when the wind was at its height we were getting these ghostly didgeridoo sounds, which was rather soothing.
Can’t answer for the Brisbane folk though. Hope they’re ok too. Brisbane had its wettest day for 50 years on (I think) Saturday.
Meanwhile, in Queensland…
Thanks for filling us in. @mikeghep,
Those spooky didgeridoo sounds do sound very soothing.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that all
Of you down there in Brisbane Åre managing OK.
We are OK, but have been flooded in with no power or phone connectivity for 3 days. Absolutely biblical quantities of rain. No power means no water or sewage, for us. We finally received some very weak phone connectivity last night (thus this update). Authorities are saying another 2 days before power here. Our emergency water supply has run down and we have cooked or thrown out all food in our fridge and freezers. We should be able to get out later today and will camp at my mother’s. Cat will get one last feed then have to fend for himself for a day or two.
Had a lovely occasion last night where a couple of the other trapped neighbours with kids came over and I made wood-fired pizzas for everyone using up whatever anyone could bring. They tasted pretty damn good.
Glad to hear you’re OK. We had no power for 2 days, fortunately the BBQ was at hand, so all good. Still plenty of evidence of panic buying, there was nowt left when I went to the supermarket last night. I suppose it is difficult for deliveries to get through with flooding. Massive queues at the bust stops this morning, as schools are back. I’m supposed to be seeing New Order tonight at the Riverstage in Brisbane, which is an outdoor venue, it’s still going ahead apparently, so it should be an interesting experience. Planning on bring my wellies, which will be a first.
Good to hear you’re both ok, though it sounds grim. A friend out in the sticks has been in the same boat (swidt?) as you, Pods – flooded in with no power or internet for 3 or possibly 4 days. As if by magic this morning a chopper landed in the paddock next to her house and two knights in shining hi-viz and hard hats climbed out and proceeded to fix the pole. 33 properties powered up again!
What a wonderful story, @mikethep.
Australia. …
Where the guys from the electricity company suddenly land in the neighbouring paddock in a chopper.
Where you can suddenly find unexpected bull sharks lurking round your pontoon and nibbling at your toes.
Where, amidst all the chaos and confusion, music festivals are still functioning and you can nip off to see P J Harvey and New Order.
Dull it isn’t.
Suggest you get a spot up the top of that rather steep slope!
Thanks JW ! Busy week, NO tonight, Kirstin Hersh Friday, PJ Harvey Saturday – getting too old for all of this.
Hope you really enjoyed the New Order gig @dan-druff.
Music can be such a wonderful tonic in times of tribulation.
That @Podicle Pizza Party sounds like a blast. It seems like you had to use all your culinary imagination. Good for you,
Great to hear that you are managing to keep your spirits up.
Remember I predicted grief for the Gold Coast canals? Didn’t think of sharks! 😬
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/floodwater-damages-jetties-and-pontoons-on-gold-coast-canals/news-story/c0bbe507133b8a407bc79ee2c27ef8d0?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0_KfZPPnG1EO2hg60n8TfUt1rr9VfihqZY2ZgxMShBi37k4_1-3fmpXoo_aem_vv8Ilz175umhAj4cPnVI9g
I was thinking about you all and monitoring the news which did suggest it was tons of rain rather than mass destruction which is probably a result in the scheme of things. Glad you’re all ok anyways.
Glad you’ve all got through it.
I got curious about Riverstage. It was interesting to see what it looks like.
And to get a small taste of New Order performing there.
Thanks Kaisfatdad. I was really surprised this gig went ahead, a huge risk, not only because of the weather, but also the public transport system was in disarray as a consequence, not much fun for punters of event staff. I had a great time, NO do a good job of the visuals complementing the music. Also, it didn’t rain !
I couldn’t resist taking a look to see a little more of NO 2025, @dan-druff.
Sounds and looks great. They’ve put a lot of thought and care into that light show-