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Predictions after Brexit?

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So, assuming “LEAVE” wins – which now seems likely – what happens next?

I think, by the end of the year, Michael Gove and Chuka Umunna would be leading their respective parties.

Any more predictions?

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Comments

  1. A rise in canned goods sales.

    I think Corbs is here for the long haul, more’s the pity. His little winged monkeys have the national party on lockdown, and think that their 0.5 million is reflective of the voting intentions of the other 59.5. They’re not letting any centrists anywhere near the controls, regardless of what the actual electorate might want to vote for.

    I’m very much a Blairite (or as I like to call us, “people who are interested in actually winning elections”) and would love to see Chuka and Yvette and Liz Kendall and Jess Phillips come in from the cold. But unless the whole party explodes, it ain’t happening.

    Cameron’s gone, obvs. Boris will be PM before July.

    And I will be giving serious thought to one-way plane tickets.

    • I honestly don’t think Gove wants it. He’s a doer, not a leader. He likes cracking on with (appallingly misconceived) stuff.

      And he’s also very bright: bright enough to know that for every one person who likes him, there are 3 who think he’s an awful little gnome. (I’m not one of the three: I think he’s a good man who has no idea what the world is like and has based his whole ideology on the sort of deep social insight that can only come from writing for The Times and then promptly getting elected.)

      • I am one of the three. He has too high an opinion of himself and has that dreadful trait of many idealists: every complex problem has a single simple solution. That is why I think he may stand because he “knows” what’s needed. In many way’s he has a lot in common with Jeremy C.

  3. So far as I understand it the Conservatives elect leaders by the parliamentary party narrowing down to two candidates who are put to a vote of the membership. Does Johnson have enough support in the Commons? I know Cameron has never had great popularity there either but he was elected leader of the back of three lost general elections when the Tories had to try someone a bit more glib and media friendly.

    Isn’t it possible that Cameron could resign only to leave two Remain candidates put up by MPs fighting for the votes of, I would guess, a largely pro-Brexit membership. I can imagine, even if I don’t really expect, a situation where parliament doesn’t want to pass the legislation, and neither do any of the main party leaders.

  4. I think a lot of people will suddenly become very aware of all the things the EU actually funded.

    Charity’s and welfare groups who had the funding cut by the Torys had to fill the gaps with EU grants. A lot of those big city centre redevelopments in the less trendy towns and covered by the EU.

    I can’t Imagine Gove and Johnson actually putting all the reclaimed money to good use.

  6. Boris will send my wife – half-Spanish, born in Scotland, raised in France – “home”, wherever that is. I’ll be put into gulag whenever I go to visit her for being 100% White Middle Class English and not having the appropriate visa.

    Nigel Farrage will come round and destroy all my Mano Negra albums and replace them with The Albion Band. I will be have to stop salsa dancing and be forced to join the local Morris men.

    The lovely Polish cafe down the road will have to serve Full English breakfast and Gammon, Egg & Chips (no pineapple option).

    I’m not really taking this seriously, am I?

    • I’m as anti-Farrago as it’s possible to be but if he’s going to send the revolting Breakfast Pineapple back to where it came from then, by God, he’s got my vote.

      And you should start getting your affairs in order, too, Pizza Pineapple.

      Don’t get me wrong, I’m not racist, I have known and liked many Pineapples: on their own, or together with other ‘exotics’, they’re lovely – but some things they should just not get together with. Principally, your Gammon and your Pizza.

  7. It’s a hypothetical question, because Remain is going to win comfortably, but…

    Economically – a few tough years, a self-imposed recession, but not the worst we’ve had. The poor and desperate will be affected most, including the ones who think foreigners are to blame for everything. Most of us won’t notice it that much, unless we travel abroad a lot, and if we’ve got savings, we might even get an interest rate rise. After that, who knows – it’s uncharted territory. Economists seem to agree that on balance, it’s a dumb move. If anyone is qualified to be making this decision, it’s them.

    Politically – Labour’s new members have already sidelined the centre left and Brexit will sideline the centre right – so we have two very polarised and divided main parties. That’s not so terrible (with my lobbyist hat on now) because once those loyalties break down it’s way harder to pass unpopular legislation. Also, I’ve secretly always wanted to see a real left/right fight because that’s the battle for the soul of the country, of self-interest versus collective responsibility, and I’d quite like to be around for that one. Unfortunately I don’t see Labour getting itself sorted soon enough to stop the victorious Brexiteers forming the Government for the foreseeable, and if Scotland detaches as soon as it possibly can, it never will. Still, at least the Cameron haters will have a brief moment of euphoria between him going and him being replaced with something much worse.

    The terrifying prospect for me is that this and Trump in the US have transformed how we do campaigns. No one’s even bothering to defend the things they say, they are just throwing out statements and attacking anyone who questions them. It’s turning politics into WWF – the cartoon wrestlers, or the endangered animals, either is appropriate.

  8. There is enough time between now and 23rd for the powers that be to spook the markets enough to persuade any waverers to vote remain. Job’s a good un as they say.

    Then we will build a massive bonfire and burn effigies of Gove, Johnson and IDS.

    Ding dong.

  9. The vast disappointment from the kippers that the QE2 will not be commandeered to ‘send ’em all back’.

    That and the never to be mentioned again, instantly subsumed, weekly £350m that a radical Islamist takes to Brussels in a suitcase personally.

  10. i have a worrying thought that brexiters will win but we’ll end with osborne n charge. and then heathrow will be expanded and they, ll be a super port built on the outskirts of london for all our new trade deals and hs2 will be built but only as far as birmingham.

    and any money will just be spent on that and fishing and farming will start to decline etc.

    really i have no idea but i cant see it ending well

  11. Huge celebrations, street parties, bunting, cake, flags, sterling falls, a dogfight for Tory Leader job, economic decline, no party able to form a majority, economy down the u-bend, scales falling from eyes, drawing straws to decide who’s going to call the EU to ask if we can join again. Germans taking ages to pick up the phone while laughing like drains.

  12. Do you think that one day when the Earth has a few years left mankind will come to actually work it out or will it just end in war and disaster?
    Just thinking…….

  14. My prediction would be that government would be pretty much wrapped up in knots for years on end dealing with the practicalities of the fall out. A few years negotiating details of the exit with the EU. 5-10 years or whatever negotiating some of the key trade treaties. God knows how long sorting out cross-border arrangements with the Republic of Ireland. Potentially dealing with the Scots leaving the union. Sorting out arrangements for a nice new camp in Kent. Setting up new organisations/functions that don’t currently exist. And so on.

    Given that the Hunting With Dogs Act for practically monopolised parliamentary time for.a year, one wonders quite how the executive and legislature is going to pack it all in.

    Meanwhile, the real problems ( poor productivity, trade deficit, arguably unsustainable NHS, moribund social mobility, etc) languish ignored in the corner.

  15. Back to normal on 24th June either way is what I’ve decided. They’re all lying toe rags so on that basis nothing they say will come to fruition and we can all get on with our lives again……

  16. I’ve just posted my vote. Going on holiday on Monday after RefDay. Already ordered currency. I fully expect the country to look exactly the same when I get home. As for politicos – well who knows – they have an unerring tendency to shoot themselves in the foot just when we least expect it….My question for Boris and Gove would be – if the EU really is the mother of all abominations you now present to us, how come you only noticed a few months ago? As for the PM , well…..Theresa looks as though she might….. 🙂
    …and in the real world I went to see Parquet Courts tonight and they were bloody brilliant. So who cares about the other stuff…..tonight I want this reat(y)

  18. The 24th will look pretty much like the 23rd anyhow because these things take time.
    But if we do vote Leave I shall be setting up 2 political groups – Independence for London as a city state, and Independence for the North of England. Because UKIP say nothing to me about my life.

    Then I’ll panic

  19. As an interested Irishman – you lot are messing with our future as well:
    1. I hate the madeup word BREXIT. Sounds like the Sun is running all this and everyone else has sunk to their level.
    2. No-one really knows what will happen in both the UK or indeed Europe if the UK quits.
    3. The normal approach to referenda, is, if not sure vote for the status quo.

    As to the future:
    I’ve seen things you people wouldn’t believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears…in…rain. Time to die.

  20. The Vote Leave people published their framework for post referendum action today. So presuming that they’re being optimistic – they’re expecting changes to be in place by the next election – we could be looking at nearer to a decade of Brexit negotiations. They talk about not leaving the EU until they’ve negotiated a good deal. They also mention the fact that the referendum doesn’t mean the government are legally obliged to leave either.

    I reckon lots of people excited, waiting for the flow of people to stop coming in, waiting for the magic of independence. Instead it will be more of the same, muddy boring negotiations on the news and quite possibly in the interim period a rise in immigration. Because while we’re negotiating and still ‘IN’ we’re still bound by the movement of people directive.

    I don’t think either side of the argument are going to see things play out in ways that are expected. Surprise and disappointment in equal amounts.

    • This is quite an amusing bit from the free trade bill section. I have bolded some of the text:

      This would require that by the next election, the UK leaves the EU’s ‘common commercial policy’. That would restore the UK Government’s power to control its own trade policy. That would create jobs. The UK would take back its seat on the World Trade Organization, becoming a more influential force for free trade and friendly cooperation. After we Vote Leave, we would immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals with emerging economies and the world’s biggest economies (the US, China and Japan, as well as Canada, Australia, South Korea, New Zealand, and so on), which could enter into force immediately after the UK leaves the EU.

      Translation: even if we vote Brexit, we could be staying in the EU for years.

  25. Exactly. This is typical from the corporate gimp who charged $100,000 Australian dollars to talk about ‘World Poverty’. Talentless, egotistical yobbo greedhead prick.

    Peace & Love

  26. Have to say that I think the sensible economic arguments are in favour of Remain, and there have been plenty of third parties putting them forward.

    BUT

    Cameron and Osborne have gone over the top with the gloom and doom forecasts. I think there was a point about two weeks ago when it reached a tipping point and a lot of people stopped believing them. It’s now at a point where the Leave lot can spew out any ill founded nonsense and get a lot of people nodding their heads. It won’t last for ever, and in time they will be widely judged as a bunch of myth peddlers, but I fear they won’t be found out until after the referendum.

    There have been people making rational, level headed contributions to the debate – and while I’m for Remain I’ll acknowledge some have been on the Leave side – but they’ve been drowned out by the official government scaremongering and a lot of malevolent screeching from Johnson, Farage and their mates.

    This has been a rather ignoble moment in our nation’s history.

    • Osborne’s latest bullshit budget threat has got to Remain’s biggest whopper/own goal yet. Regardless of the outcome, he’s terminally hulled below the waterline, and that’s a good thing for everyone, irrespective.

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