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You are here: Home / Forum / Now don’t get testy with me but I’d like to know the stats on covid deaths as it relates to age.

Now don’t get testy with me but I’d like to know the stats on covid deaths as it relates to age.

by 99 Comments

Deep breath before the onslaught.

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    • It sounds like a small percentage, but it really isn’t.

      UK’s population is around 66,000,000.

      The Case Fatality Rate for covid varies wildly by country. But let’s say it’s 1% in the UK. And for herd immunity to apply (which seems to be the goal of many who downplay the severity of the virus, although I accept that you haven’t done that here), around 70% would have to be infected (although I am not sure that there has ever been a virus where natural herd immunity has been achieved in a short period of time).

      So we’d need 70% of 66,000,000 to be infected to achieve herd immunity. That’s 46,200,000 people. And of those, 1% would die – 462,000. That’s a big number.

      And that’s just people who die. Your chances of hospitalisation are obviously higher.

      • And the total number of Covid deaths in the UK passed 65,000 sometime last week, that makes it a 1 in 1000 chance of death from a single disease in the last 9 months. And the 65k is going to keep increasing for a good while yet.

        1 in 1000 is not the sort of risk I’m prepared to take. Imagine if 210 people died at the next Glastonbury festival.

        • Lots of over 75s at Glastonbury? About 80% of deaths are over 75. So there wouldn’t be that many deaths directly of Glastonbuty attendees, but it could be a super spreader event if infection rate still high which could lead to deaths in aged relatives when people go home

          I know you have an underlying health condition (like me) so we wouldn’t be there.

          Could be you are let in next year after showing your vaccination papers and/or everybody is tested on entry.

          • At the current rate of the Glasto demographic, it won’t be long before the audience are pensioners.

            I’m 50 now and would consider going with my daughter (who will be 19 by the time we could next buy tickets) if we could get me a flushing toilet. We did one day at Reading Festival last year as a dry run.

            • I read that as “flushing ticket”, which would be interesting. Reading is more feasible, and you can even stay overnight there in a hotel within walking distance to the festival.

              • Back 25+ years ago, the district nurse in Pilton was cousin of one of the pals I travelled down with. We used to stay in a small campsite behind a farmhouse in the village. Flushing toilet and a shower (50p in the meter for not quite long enough to rinse the shampoo out of your hair).

                As an “old boy”, I can stay in a Reading University hall of residence for about £20 per night. It’s a 45-min walk to the site, but I get disabled access and can park behind the main stage.

                • Nice perk. I slept on a friend’s sofa one year who lived in Caversham. I remember drinking a lot, going to the portable loos a lot and we got lost trying to exit the festival grounds at the end of the day. Happy days.

                  • I went to Reading festival for 13 or 14 years and only ever camped onsite once (1993, in the backstage compound – my pal was taking photos for NME). The rest of the time it was in my digs, or on the floor of ex-student friends. An hour’s walk twice a day, but worth it for a shower and a flushing toilet.

              • It was about 35 degrees C in the shade, so I didn’t even need to pee, it just evapourated out of my pores.

                Believe me, there is no bum/bog-related joke I have not heard repeatedly.

        • Around 1,750,000 people in the UK have (or had) COVID. Around 62,000 died.

          That means that in the UK, COVID has a case fatality of rate of 3.5%. I was being generous by assuming that it was 1%.

          I have no idea where your 0.175 percent comes from. Or the 19.2 million. The only reference I can find to that number is the global case total on 8 August 2020. So it can’t be that.

      • @Baron-Harkonnen you havent read my post. 0.5 percent of World population not UK population. However fatality rate of uk population as opposed to fatality rate of infected is about 0.175 percent and as @dai said mostly the elderly or those with underlying illness. Interestingly there are very few countries that do not report on how many of their population have recovered – the UK happens to be one who doesnt report this information. The cynic in me would suggest they want the population to continue to live in fear so they can exert their control.
        I also have an underlying health condition but have no fear whatsoever of Covid – I am more fearful of heart disease or cancer and not being properly treated.
        My mum was diagnosed with Dementia last week I would have preferred her to have Covid – at least she can recover from that.
        Perspective is everything – mine being different to yours doesnt mean it is bollox. Look forward to that pint x

        • I already have heart disease and cancer (and COPD). I am mortally (SWIDT?) afraid of COVID. Clearly I have a different perspective from you. I’m sorry about your mum though.

          • @mikethep If I had cancer and COPD I would be afraid of Covid too . I am not being triumphalist because I dont have these illnesses – I have type 2 diabetes which apparently puts me in a higher risk category. I can only take the measures advised to me and hope for the best. My nature doesnt allow me to be fearful of something like this. I am fearful of what will happen after Brexit much more.

            • @SteveT the 80% figure, which is the true figure, I gave in relation to your bollocks figure 99.5 for those who have mild C19 was for the total population of the third rock from the sun.

              By trying to play down the seriousness of this disease will not make it go away.

              You know my views on the mis-management of the pandemic by our Beloved Leaders. I too am fucked if I should get C19 because I have asthma and COPD but as In have said to you in the past we have to learn to live with C19. This requires huge investment by the government in new hospitals and new staff to err, staff them. C19 isn`t going away but hopefully if the population of the UK see sense and the vaccine take up is by a large majority maybe C19 can be controlled.

        • “The cynic in me would suggest they want the population to continue to live in fear so they can exert their control.”

          Who are “they”? What do they gain from this?

          • @fortuneight what do you mean ‘who are they?’. The bloody government. They love the control they have – it’s going to be a sad day in the corridors of power when they have to give some of this control back.

            • I dont know @SteveT. As you say, questioning the current government policy on managing the crisis is not the same as being a Covid denier. But do you honestly believe that Government is imposing these restrictions as some means of having more ‘control’? Over what, exactly, and to what end? God knows I think Johnson and most of them are the most incompetent shower we could have had in this crisis. And I wouldn’t trust him, Gove, or Sunak as far as I could throw them. But I don’t believe they are deliberately overstating things, or imposing restrictions on our freedom as some sort of masterplan – partly because I think they are incapable of having a masterplan, partly because I cannot see whats in it for them, and (call me naive) I just genuinely don’t think they are doing anything other than balance trying to control the virus and the economy and their politcal position, however incompetently they are doing so.

              • I think if anything they have been avoiding controls because much of their party don’t believe in lockdown. That’s been part of the problem, reluctance to take action due to pressure elsewhere leading to deadly delays. Early lockdown has been shown to be effective in other countries. Hatred of the nanny state has been a powerful force in Toryland for a long time.

      • Or even older folk. Most of them won’t die of it

        By the way, expressing some reservations about the current Covid policies doesn’t make one a Covid denier (I take the same precautions as everyone else) or an anti vaxxer (I’ll be ready and waiting for mine)
        It just means there are nuances to everything and extreme caution with no regard to any other factors is equally as bad as just business as usual IMO

        • @Thegp I agree with you. I self isolate, self distance, wear a mask etc but it seems if we dont quite believe the bullshit we are being told we are dicks. For every fit person who has suffered a severe reaction to Covid there are tens of thousands who havent. Dont focus on the negative focus on the positive is my motto.

          • So, @stevet: you self isolate, self distance, wear a mask etc. Surely, if you didn’t believe the bullshit you’re being told you wouldn’t bother? What exactly is the bullshit you don’t quite believe? If you catch it you’ll probably die, so will I, unless we’ve both had a jab that works. I’m struggling to find the positive to focus on, frankly.

            • @mikethep, @SteveT has been wearing a full facial mask since the courts ordered him to. Why, because he put the fear of god into poor children who saw him un-masked.

              To say the feller is ugly is a travesty, to the word `ugly` not Steve. When we meet up for a pint Steve brings his portable screen to avoid distress to fellow imbibers.

      • Hmm, not sure that even is true. There is a celebrated case in Brum, celebrate maybe the wrong word, of a young fella who contracted it at an event he had put on and was fined 10k for. He later wrote how it was the worst illness he had ever experienced and not a bit like even full blown flu. Touted as fake news or even apocryphal, it wasn’t: my dter knows him from her clubbing days in the city.

  6. Not being testy, just clarifying. The mem is a GP. She explains this daily to the public. She (testily) explained it to me when I joshed as per the flu/ oldie-culling received wisdom.

    Divide the total number of coronavirus cases by the number of dead coronavirus cases and you get 1 to 2 %. (There are local variations based on health care, local population health, etc.) So 1 to 2 in 100 die of it. 1 or 2 per thousand die of the flu. Corona is a magnitude (much more) infectious, and if you are unlucky, more lethal. How to protect yourself? Don’t catch it. As lots of people seem to be asymptomatic carriers, follow hygiene recommendations.

    Maintain this for the next 6 months and hopefully we’ll all be seeing Nick Mason and Cheap Trick next April.

    • Well put, Vincent.

      And don’t forget long Covid, which is a real thing and very debilitating. A lot of people, including the young, are feeling rotten for a long time in a way that barely ever happens with flu.

      • Plus, our subset here, of largely white dudes of some degree of privilege, and, arguably, moving in such circles, will not know so much the scythe through inner city areas of greater deprivation. Whilst in leafy Lich there have been scores of deaths in the old and infirm, and no small long Covid morbidity in the younger and fitter, my old colleagues in inner city Brum have streets where most families have had first hand knowledge of way more than a ‘touch of flu’. Still also too many dicks saying they ‘must have had it’ as they had a bad cold at the beginning of the year.

        • Im one of those I’m afraid. Who knows?

          I’m pretty sure I had it last Christmas, before it was known to be in the UK. I’d spent quite a bit of time in the West End at a destination for tourists, lots of Chinese in particular. My colleague had the same as I did and we were both very ill. I had to sleep on the couch for two weeks as I just couldn’t stop coughing and I felt below par for a total of about 6 weeks: exhausted, small tasks tired me out etc. My wife said she’s never seen me so unwell in over 20 years.

            • I’ve recovered completely from whatever it was and due to lifestyle changes brought on by the complete destruction of my so called career, I’m in better shape than I have been for years. Hope your friends didn’t suffer any long term effects. Incidentally, my wife was also ill at the same time but, like your friends, nowhere near as bad.

              • As you say, quite possibly. I wouldn’t call you a dick, mind, that is reserved for those who trumpet how they had it, must have had it, with symptoms somewhere between a cold and mild flu. Some of them, maybe, but many, probably not.
                A good chum of mine, a real china buff, caught a “bad cold” in Shanghai in March. Tested negative there, twice, negative in UK and, when available, antibody negative. A super-fit cyclist, who enjoys alpine uphill rides, he could barely speak for 6 months, let alone climb on his bike. He started cycling again in October and, within weeks, back came all the symptoms. His infectious disease consultant is treating it as a textbook long covid.
                It is one strange fucker and we belittle it at personal peril. I ain’t tempting fate, PPE for all patient contacts and care otherwise.

              • They’re fine now, thanks. The one who had it worst took about four weeks to get to full health.

                Two different friends of ours definitely had it – positive tests, both ill. They had it just before lockdown 1.0. They were cold-shouldered by people in their village, and asked by the owner not to go in the village shop, as other people in the village had said they didn’t want to shop there if they’d used it. The joys of rural Somerset.

  8. I watched “Hospital” on tv last night. They followed a couple of chaps who were in hospital with Covid. It’s a brilliant, frightening, illuminating hours telly. One is a London bus driver the other runs a post office. They both survived but both would have died were it not for the astonishing care and science that got them through. I dont know how much it all cost or how many NHS hours it took. It was a stark reminder of how lethal it can be, how easily it can be passed on, what resources it hoovers up and just why it’s not all about the numbers or demographics. These were two family men trying to do their jobs who nearly lost their lives in the process, probably because someone hadnt followed the guidance. They could have been any of us. Common sense from everyone reduces infection in a way that we can’t help to avoid cancer or other high mortality diseases. The hospital last night had to cancel other treatments when faced with Covid patients who WILL die without treatment versus other patients who MIGHT die without treatment. Drs forced into playing God. Take it seriously, use common sense, wash your hands, respect others and wear a fucking mask!!

    • Ah yes Covid death porn back on TV.
      If you went to any hospital you could make a population scaring program about many different illnesses.

      I saw the same program and feel desperately sorry for those people in it, but if you’re healthy then it’s just bad luck if you die of it, not a foregone conclusion

      • Just bad luck then, wow, that’s a relief and a weight off.
        A bit like Billy Conolly’s riff on conventional weapons…. (As in, thank goodness he died from conventional weapons.)

      • Covid Death Porn…. TMFTL

        There’s me thinking it was a factual account of two Covid sufferers who survived thanks to phenomenal care and treatment. Bloody healthy bus drivers and post office workers clogging up the NHS getting lucky! I’m writing to Points of View!!

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