Nicola Sturgeon is behaving in a statesman-like manner, holding talks with all and sundry, polishing the silver in her official residence so it gleams under all those lights and cameras and saying things in calm and assured tones. She is displaying exemplary ‘leadership’ qualities as defined by the world of politics. However, can she really retain Scotland’s place in the EU?
As far as I understand it, the UK is the member country of the EU. The UK remains in the EU until article 50 is invoked and the negotiations are completed. This process will take roughly two and a bit years. Scotland, as part of the UK, is intimately involved and would no longer be in the EU at some point deep into 2018.
Scotland could become independent from the UK. To achieve that there needs to be another referendum with the opposite result to last time. A referendum can only be triggered with the agreement of Westminster, which may take some time. Victory may well depend on the price of oil at the time of the referendum. Once the vote is for independence, there will be a period of negotiation to agree the terms of separation from the Union. Something tells me this process could also take years. Finally, when independent from the UK, Scotland can then apply for EU membership. She (Scotland) will then have to satisfy all 35 chapters of the inclusion criteria, including unanimous acceptance by the other EU countries. Spain has already said they would use their veto because they do not want to encourage the separatists in their own country.
Scotland as a full member of the EU isn’t going to happen any time soon, if ever. However, there are two points to consider. Is it true that Scotland could block article 50, according to the terms of the devolution agreement? On the face of it, I think they could. The second question is can a devolved Scotland, as currently configured, negotiate its own trade agreements with the EU and free movement of people? Scotland needs to increase its population to enhance its economy. It already has different arrangements with the EU and the UK for university students. Frankly, I can’t see why not.
Consequently, I can see Scotland voting for independence in a few years time. Spain will still block EU membership but I can see her having a much more mutually beneficial arrangement with the EU than the rest of the UK.
It appears that Ms Sturgeon is playing a smart long game.
Any thoughts?
I’m sure I recall that Alex Salmond saying at the weekend that Scotland cannot block or veto Brexit. They can symbolically vote against it, but not prevent it. No idea if that’s correct, but there you go.
I would be surprised if a non-independent Scotland were to remain part of the single market without the rest of the UK, and particularly surprised if Scotland were to remain signed up to free movement of people with the rest of the UK having torpedoed its own economy to secure its borders. Still, never say never – that’s surely the lesson of the week just gone.
Here you go: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/alex-salmond-scottish-parliament-cannot-block-brexit/
I see. The Scottish Parliament can withhold its consent to Brexit but Westminster would override. In that case, that’s what I think will happen, further emphasising the difference between Scotland and the rest of the UK, adding to the case for a second referendum on Independence for Scotland.
Given the SNP’s raison d’etre is Scottish independence, it would be insane for them to block Brexit, removing the best method of breaking free of the mad Ingerlanders.
Ms Sturgeon has played the last week consummately. If only she could move the border down to at least Durham or thereabouts…
Preston would be better.
Even if Scotland could block Brexit, I doubt that they would. If Salmond says they can’t, that’s it then. If anyone thinks Scotland could block it, Salmond would relish that level of power and influence.
What’s happening now with a devolved Scotland? Do trade delegations travel to Japan, for example, to strike deals on the export of Whisky? If they can do that, can’t they do their own trade agreements with the EU post-Brexit?
Absolutely no idea. Beyond the comment above, I’ll defer (with interest) to the thoughts of Jorrox, Ianess and Lando….
The answer is yes – there are trade delegations all the time, including negotiations with foreign governments. Agreements sometimes go formally via UK government though.
In that case, post Brexit, the devolved Scottish Parliament could negotiate its own trade deals with the EU, without the need to be independent from the UK.
The plot thickens.
It’s not the trade deals that are the issue, I think. It’s the free movement of people.
By which I mean that you couldn’t have free movement of people from the EU into Scotland but not England. Not without an immigration border. Which I suspect is rather Ms Sturgeon’s point.
Well, Scotland currently has different rules for EU students to UK students. If the devolved government negotiates a deal that includes free movement, would the UK have the power to overrule?
No. But they would need an immigration border. This would be a huge pain. The NI/RoI equivalent would be something much worse.
E U, Jimmy…
Up!
double up
Is it too late for Retro to use that as the title for this thread?
Who are you calling Retro, Jimmy?
Colin should retain all the credit for his excellent joke. I shouldn’t steal it.
Whoops – sorry Tiggs.
Exactly, who are you calling Retro? (Unless you mean retro, the name we call Tiggs when he he has a night in with one of his wimmins singers)
She’s doing rather well, so far.
There seems to be a lot of good will in Europe towards us up here but that means very little. I hope we get to keep the 28th place if we become a normal independent nation/state. If the EU signals that we can stay if we vote to leave the UK, I’m sure that we’ll win that vote.
Who knows where we all will be in 2 to 3 years time.
There ain’t no way that the EU would say “get independence and you cab stay”. For a start there is no provision for such a situation in the EU regulations, and secondly, they will not start any official negotiations till Scotland become independent… it is pie in the sky.
The alternative to her actions would be what then?
The alternative is that Scotland leaves the EU along with the rest of the UK. It’s bonkers of course and will leave us all poorer. But you know what would be worse, for all the same reasons? Scotland leaving the UK.
There’s no doubt that Ms Sturgeon is playing a clever game, but she can do that because she knows that in the short term there’s no chance of anything happening.
Right now the oil price means that the economics of independence don’t add up, it also means that Scotland wouldn’t meet the economic criteria for EU membership. Add to that the need to get approval from all 27 other states. Not only would Spain be likely to use its veto, other countries that have had to go through a 10 year process to get in probably wouldn’t approve of Scotland being fast tracked.
A further point is that an independent Scotland would be one of the smallest countries in the EU. How much of a say would it have in trade and other negotiations? It would be giving up one union in which it feels marginalised for an even bigger one in which it would be more so.
I didn’t realise that Scotland would be one of the smallest. You never know. The EU may bend over backwards for Scotland just to give the UK a kicking.
Genuine question. ‘They’ say that the UK is the 5th (maybe now the 6th) largest economy in the world. What would the ranking be for the RUK and for Scotland if Scotland becomes a normal nation/state?
Just to echo what Dogbyte has posted, Scotland has zero chance of entering the EU whilst still in the UK, but Wee Nippy is doing what she does best, political posturing, all style with negative substance. Her supporters need to recognise that in the indyref we voted to stay in the Union, and as such we vote and behave as if we were, but LaSturgeon continues to ignore that pursues her agenda of separatism. Her biggest lie is to say she acts in the best interests of Scottish people… no she feckin’ does not… she acts in the best interest of the 34% of the Scottish electorate that voted *Yes* in the indyref.
The record of the SNP run Scottish Government is abysmal (the worst per capita GDP deficit in Europe, folks!), but here we go again, she is ignoring what the majority want, solidarity with the rest of the UK whatever happens with brexit, and pandering to her followers.
Independence, no matter what it costs.
From this side of the border, she seems to have very popular support. She keeps winning elections by a mile (though not an overall majority this time) and the EU vote was impressively Remain.
Just so, but her popularity is an odd thing…it matters not a jot how badly her Government perform, the followers do not see any faults and that is because the agenda is one thing and one thing only, independence.
It may surprise you know that the vote for SNP at the GE fell from the level at the indyref, and that fell by more at the Scottish elections, but these nippy little fuckers are VERY vocal!
That is a surprise. The SNP’s popularity is on the wane?!
Pre EU referendum, there was certainly no visible increase in their support, and signs that there may be an ebb away from them…council election SNP votes were, with a few exceptions -both higher and lower- always in the 43%-45% range, anfd their % vote at the Scottish elections fell slightly over the previous one.
Has the EU vote changed things? Possibly, but remember, a vote to remain was not a vote for independence.
I presume you’re confusing the number that voted for independence with the number that voted SNP at the subsequent GE. The referendum vote was not a vote for a particular party – there would have been a number of Labour, Liberal and Tory voters who voted for independence.
As you’re aware, the SNP absolutely obliterated Labour at the GE (one Labour MP left) and, at the Scottish elections, increased their votes to double that of Labour and pushed Labour down to third place.
‘Nippy”? She lost that name at least four years ago. The comments from mainstream/unionist media have been hugely supportive. I say she is playing a blinder. Way way above any other party leader in our disintegrating union.
Queen In The North is what I’d call her.
“the comments from ………hugely supportive”? What paper are you reading, The National?
I’m sorry, but your comment is typical of the blind faith that the SNP supporters have in their party….. flouncing around Europe trying (and failing) to get audiences with the great and the good of the EU… did she really think that for one minute any of these people were gonna discuss Scotland in the EU whilst part of the UK? Really?
ianes, I’m not confusing anything. If you know of anyone who voted Yes and was not a supporter of the SNP, then point them in my direction…to say that the “number” would be significant is disingenuous, and you know well fine that it is… of course 99.9% of those who wanted independence voted SNP.
And you cannot compare the result of a referendum, a binary choice, Yes or No, with a FPP GE, but the number of those who voted SNP fell about 150,000 from referendum.
You’re obviously still confused. There was even a Labour for Scotland movement, for instance. Again, to spell it out in the simplest of terms, the GE involves a vote for a particular party. The referendum was not a vote for the SNP. There is no comparison to be made between the two figures. Any disingenuousness is on your part.
The GE resulted in a near wipeout for every other party in Scotland. It was a result that Kim-Jong Un would have envied.
Some decline.
According to a post-referendum poll, 37% of Labour voters, 39% of Liberals and 5% of Tory voters were for independence. Funnily enough, 14% of SNP voters voted against it.
Mmm, you misinterpret the figures, either by mistake, or as I suspect, it is deliberate. These were the figures for *EX* Labour Party (etc) voters who voted for independence…. the increased support for the SNP in 2014 had to come from somewhere, and obviously they came from other parties.
If (as you insinuate they were) they were current Labour Party (etc) supporters voting for independence (ridiculous argument) can you explain why the Labour party in Scotland lost over 300,000 voters in the GE compared to 2010?
For your argument to have any creedence the SNP vote would have to slid down below 30% of the electorate as the alleged Labour (etc) supporters would have voted for their party. But they didn’t did they, and why was that? There is only one reason, and that is they all changed their allegiance to SNP, and that is why the SNP vote increased by zillions compared to 2010.
I repeat, 99.9% of Yessers were SNP supporters, and to try to prove otherwise is ludicrous and impossible. Over to you.
I know the difference between a referendum and an election, and I know that the Scottish National Party is the party for independence (the clue is in the title), and as for the “Labour for Scotland” mob, well they were important weren’t they…. how many members did they have? I know, ianess, do you? Shall I tell you? Less than 100….their leader and secretary (or office bearer) were both members of the SNP at the same time as they were fronting this mob, AND they also were fined by the Electoral Commission for not submitting accounts.
And please do not misquote me…I am saying their vote are declining and it is.
Next?
I think you mean ‘Labour for Independence’. It was what we used to call a front organisation.
Yep, that’s the bunch.
But you stayed in the Union partly because, at the time, that was billed as your only chance of remaining the EU. Now you have the chance of staying there and ditching the insanity to the south of you.
Partly, perhaps, but the biggest by far reason was that we did not want to be independent, and it is as simple as that.
Remember, last year only 14% of our exports went to the EU, 65% went the rUK…. yet Sturgeon would have us desert our biggest customer base, but stay in one that we trade 80% less with for “economic reasons”? Go figure.
Are there any circumstances that would make you support Scotland being a normal nation/state or are you happy to stay under Westminster no matter what?
Good question. Not sure…my Father was English and two of my granddaughters are Geordies, so I have strong English connections, BUT whilst this shower are in charge of the SG, not a snowball’s chance.
I don’t see how they can stay in the EU while they are still part of a current member state that intends to leave.
Once the UK has gone ahead and left, they could then separate from the UK (if the Scottish populace agree to it) and then they could apply for EU membership and see if they are accepted.
yep, that is their only viable scenario, but Mariano Rajoy awaits should they get permission from WM, and still no viable currency plan AND a level of GDP debt that is the worst in Europe.
As always, the Jack of Kent blog is a reliable source of evidence-based argument. See:
http://jackofkent.com/2016/06/where-we-are-now-with-article-50-decision-notify-and-devolution-issues/
Sturgeon yesterday: “I have a duty as First Minister to find a way to give effect to the democratic will of Scotland”… this obviously excludes the democratic will of the Scottish people to remain in the UK, as at every opportunity she stirs the pot of separatism. You want an example? The SG lobbied for more of our taxes to be a devolved issue, so that we basically would have 99% control over the raising and spending of our income tax, except someone in the SG did the math and discovered that we would be £9.5billion worse off than if we had stuck with the Block Grant, so negotiations began and after much toing and froing, WM agreed to subsidise -yes, that is the correct terminology- us for the shortfall. This was portrayed by the SG as a great victory as that nasty English parliament were trying to do us out of what is rightly ours. Think about that… what Scotland was saying that “we want more powers, we want to keep what is ours, and we want some of yours also”, but the independence lobby totally ignored the fact that if we had become independent on March 16th of this year, there would be no helping hand from WM, and we would be fucked. They are a despicable bunch.
Finally trust me here, she has no interest per se in whether we remain in the EU or not….it is just a another notch in the politics of grievance that she does so well, the “big bad Westminster schtick that she is so adept at.
I’m English, I live in England and I haven’t been taking more than perfunctory notice of what’s been going on politically up there.
It’s incontrovertible that a decent enough majority of Scots voted to stay in the UK and it may well be true that the SNP lost a bit of support post-IndyRef, though to my untrained eye this has been within the normal parameters of waxing and waning support that ruling parties get in the course of time. The other parties are still behind them, anyway.
I wonder if anyone has done any polling on SNP support/antipathy since Thursday.
It wouldn’t be a big surprise to me, given that Scots voters were much more in favour of remaining in the EU than leaving, if the SNP’s support has received a bit of a boost. Nicola Sturgeon is indeed a canny political operator and appears to be making the most of it. The Scottish Tories and Labour have been caught hopping, seemingly.
So, Geacher, no second referendum ever? No matter if opinion swings towards normality (and we won’t be having it until that happens anyway).
Never say never Mr J, but the “once in a generation” promise
should be honoured.
Well. I’ve come to the conclusion that I can look forward to many years of Ms Sturgeon saying, “Scotland voted to remain in the EU” in her clipped tones. Can someone make it available as a ringtone?
I’ve had a lifetime of Westminster/English voices saying “Britain’ when they mean ‘UK’ and Britain when they mean ‘England’. I fully understand your annoyance.
That’s me told! ?
Another good blog, specifically on the Scottish dimension is Kevin Hague’s consistently brilliant chokkablog: http://chokkablog.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/brexit-and-case-for-scottish.html
“…the economic cost for Scotland leaving the UK – if you prefer, the courage required – is an order of magnitude greater than that for the UK leaving the EU.”
I have no idea what his politics are but he takes a commendably evidence-based approach.