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    • Stability is all.

      Should the worse happen, to him … the virus will take a back seat, the tabloid media will put him on a Churchillian pedestal, and the pre-virus toxicity of Brexit will return.

      From numerous phone calls with my mother in London, in the last few weeks people have really been helping each other. We need that to continue.

  2. I hope he pulls through OK. Both Johnson and Morrison here in Australia, two politicians I actively disliked, have had the common sense to realise that a crisis like this needs a socialist response, so have aquitted themselves rather well.

  3. Can I get a sense for what constitutes “twattish”?

    Because for a man who was thinking that going for herd immunity was the right response and risked the lives of the population, I really want to know how that theory is working for him right now?

    Sword. Live by it…

    • What a stupid comment He is taking scientific advice re herd immunity and Britain is not the only country considering it. There is evidence it is the only way to protect us from future outbreaks.
      I have made unkind comments about him in the past and most liky will in the future – I hope he pulls through because he is first and foremost a family man and you wouldn’t or shouldnt wish illl of him.

      • I hope he pulls through quickly. I wouldn’t wish the virus on anyone.

        The problem with the herd immunity approach is that:

        a) it was unworkable from an infrastructure point of view

        b) the delay in locking down the country whilst following the herd strategy has increased the number of infected people. Potentially himself included.

        The herd immunity approach was a mistake and really only peddled here and by an Austrian who worked for the Red Bull F1 team.

        And the idea that he is first and foremost a family man is not really compatible with the facts unless you mean to celebrate that he has created several families.

        I will repeat that I hope he makes a full (and quick) recovery. But let’s not ignore the facts just because he is ill.

        • But I disagree with you about herd immunity as a potential to protect us from a future outbreak. Holland is also giving consideration to Herd immunity and so too Sweden which is not even in lock down. Our lock down had nothing to do with reducing the number of deaths but more to do with ensuring the NHS can cope with future numbers.. it has bought us time to build Nightingale hospitals, recruit retired NHS staff and move private hospitals under NHS control. We have now more capacity than we did 3 weeks ago and spare beds in anticipation of a spike in numbers.

          • I’m confused with your disagreement -my point was that the strategy was not fully thought through and the Government swiftly changed tack when they realised that the health infrastructure wouldn’t cope. It remains to be seen how well Sweden do. There is significant pressure on them to change their approach growing.

            I would disagree that the lockdown was not with reducing the number of deaths – it was absolutely the reason. Not enough ventilators means more deaths. Boris wouldn’t be where he is now (i.e. either connected to or right next to a ventilator) if that were not true. If the lockdown hadn’t happened, it would have been worse with more deaths.

            The change of strategy was absolutely right in my opinion. Are you saying it isn’t? Or that there wasn’t a change in strategy?

            • As an aside about Sweden I read that that over 50% of households are single occupancy. In the UK the figure is more like 30% and Spain is even lower. Sweden’s population is about ten million, in a country about twice the size of the UK. So population density is very low and social distancing is comparatively easy. These kind of factors are important in assessing what kind of strategy might work in a particular country. There is no one size fits all approach.

              • Swedes naturally keep away from each other in queues and happily isolate themselves without prompting. Drink can compensate for these tendencies however.

                There are many of the same restrictions here as elsewhere. The media as usual avoid the more nuanced truth in favour of a more extreme narrative that makes for a more eye-catching, dramatic report for people to base hot takes on who have never been here. They do want a degree of herd immunity if they can get it because otherwise the population remain vulnerable to this thing coming back and a vaccine remains a long way off. How long can you have a lockdown, how long can you shutdown society and an economy? The economy shouldn’t matter when it comes to saving lives but it’s not that simple is it?

            • No, I am not saying the change in strategy wasn’t right, I just disagree as to the reasons for it. Variously the government has worked on number of deaths being around 7000 or around 20,000 – the reality is most likely it will be closer to the former rather then the latter. Both sets of numbers are too high but I still believe the change in strategy was because of the realisation that the NHS simply wouldn’t cope with deaths at the higher number and the strategy has bought time.
              My initial point of disagreement was with @Sitheref2409 suggesting that Herd immunity is somehow a stupid consideration. I am pretty sure that once we get the antibody testing kits this government will pursue herd immunity and equally sure that it will have a successful outcome.
              It worked with smallpox which was a far bigger killer than Covid-19.

              • Well it is at 5,000 already, a U.S. study is predicting 66,000 deaths.for the UK. In much less dense Ontario (population 13 million) we are loosely predicting 3-15,000 deaths, schools closing and other measures were introduced before the UK as well. So far the figures have not exploded like they have in UK and other parts of Europe (total 132 deaths as of yesterday).

                  • @dai it wont be anywhere near 66,000 and I doubt whether it will be close to 20,000 either. The perceived wisdom is we will reach our peak this coming weekend or the early part of the week after.
                    I have very close business relations with Canada and my understanding is the lockdown was about the same time certainly in Ontario. School closures may have been earlier but doubt that would have any substantial effect.

                    • Well I hope so. Canada certainly introduced certain things earlier, if not in time then at an earlier point in the cycle than the UK. Everything pretty much got going around March 12th. Kids (in Ontario) went to school one more day only after that and businesses started working from home initiatives.

                      Also, as I implied, different provinces went at different speeds. BC and Ontario were the worst affected at the time and started the ball rolling. Quebec were maybe a day or two later, but now have very stringent things in place e.g. you can’t travel in from Ontario without good reason. In Ottawa where I live you can literally work or cycle across bridges from some parts into Quebec, police are stopping people on these bridges.

                      Anyway so far 323 deaths country wide compared to 5373 in UK (38 million/66 million population). The low population density will help, but some areas e.g. Toronto are hugely populated, 9 million people around that end of Lake Ontario.

                • I’m becoming obsessed with following all the figures as well, as are a lot of people I suppose. Bit of a morbid fascination, but a very human thing to do I think.

                  The trouble is, I don’t really think we are going to get a huge amount of clarity until maybe a year or so down the line. There are too many unknowns at the moment. Maybe in about a year or so we can look back and then it will be clearer which countries’ strategies were better than others, and why some approaches worked and some didn’t. Until then, much as we’d probably like to, we can’t say for sure whether the UK hesitated too much, or if the economic cost of the lockdown was worth it overall. Grim, but it’s important to analyse these things.

                  That 66,000 deaths figure – that’s big, and would put Covid-19 at the top of the league for annual deaths in the UK. I think the top at the moment is heart attacks at around 50,000? But even then, you would need to look at the overall mortality rate and whether more people died this year than in other years, from any cause at all. If it’s not significantly higher, it would surely suggest that Covid-19 was simply an additional factor in the deaths of many people who may have died in 2020 anyway from heart attacks, strokes, dementia, old age, etc. Again, grim, but important to understand and I don’t think anyone would deny they would like to know these figures once the dust has settled.

                  • Spot on Arthur but you are too polite. 66,000 is bullshit and that’s the problem with reporting on this – there is far too much conjecture and certainly more than enough doom mongering. As bad as the situation is in Italy for example the number of deaths is lower that an ordinary year of flu deaths.

                    • Actually it is higher and in certain areas much much higher. Looking at whole countries is not always the whole story e.g. half the deaths in the US are mainly in the metropolitan/commuting area of one city (New York). It can spread in a very dangerous way quickly where the population density is high.

                      If extreme measures were not put in place then the death count could be closer to 100,000 in Italy, which would be about 8 times their average no. of deaths from ‘flu in recent years.

                    • Twang, thanks for that Spectator article, that’s interesting. He’s coming dangerously close to saying the current lockdown is over the top and unjustified, which I don’t think I would say and is a bit taboo to suggest these days. But he has summed up well what I was trying to say above: “One pretty clear indicator is death. If a new infection is causing many extra people to die (as opposed to an infection present in people who would have died anyway) then it will cause an increase in the overall death rate.”

                    • That Spectator article is completely out of data with 10 times as many deaths now as reported there. There will, no doubt, be many who will later say that the death count wasn’t as high as feared, but that is because of the steps put in place in the last few weeks. If the health system is overwhelmed then it could be 4 or 5 or 50 times higher. So that article is bordering on irresponsibility. Look at what has happened in Italy, Spain, New York and is now happening in the UK, all because of starting shut downs too late.

                      This sort of thing (temporary burials) does not happen in normal flu outbreaks.

                      https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/new-york-city-weighs-temporary-burials-as-coronavirus-deaths-overwhelm-mortuary-system.html

                  • It is grim but it is the randomness of this disease which is quite horrifying. Generally one does not catch a heart attack, dementia, stroke and again generally, there are indicators to these conditions.

                    CVD-19 does not discriminate and this is understandably what frightens people.

    • With the public response to the efforts of the NHS and with some of the antics of Trump, intercepting items paid for by other countries, saying “America first”, any plans that the Tories had of selling parts of the NHS to US companies have just gone out of the window. It would be political suicide. I would imagine there’s been a bit of back peddling done, to prevent any further leaks about initial conversations that may have taken place.

  6. No one should wish I’ll on anyone with this condition, whoever they are, let alone a man with a pregnancy partner and an indeterminate number of children. I hope he makes a full recovery soon.

  7. I sincerely hope that he fully recovers, and I also sincerely hope that in years to come he can reflect on this time as having been a humbling chance to reconsider his approach to politics.

  9. I was sent this this morning. I presume it comes from a Facebook post or similar. Whilst I can’t vouch for its provenance I can completely agree with its sentiments.

    Boris Johnson.

    A man who has lived his entire life recklessly, selfishly, irresponsibly; without any regard for the consequences. Because he’s never needed to. His enormous privilege has protected him from any repercussions.

    He is a proven pathological liar, swaggering through the years with no empathy or concern for anyone but himself. Indeed, recently bragging about shaking hands with Corona virus patients. As if it was just another laugh; a jape; just another moment in a life less lived.

    There is a grim irony to him finally, in this manner, being confronted by the consequences of his behaviour. Even he can’t lie & bluster his way out of this mess.

    One can only hope that the Prime Minister, as he languishes in intensive care, courtesy of the NHS that he and his party have done so much to destroy, deeply regrets the cheering & jeering doled out to nurses by he and his colleagues; when they voted down a payrise for nurses. If he’s lucky he’ll now be finding out exactly how valuable these people are.

    My brother, sadly, wasn’t lucky.
    Jas, 54, died of Covid-19 in Nottingham’s Queens Medical Centre a week last Saturday night. Unlike the Prime Minister there was no ventilator for Jas.

    I then stood on an empty street, shouting to be heard over the wind, no privacy, no dignity, to tell an old man on a doorstep his child had died. The most indescribably awful duty I’ve ever had to carry out.

    There will, of course, be those idiots, those hypocrites, those bootlickers, who will condemn me for ‘politicising’ both my own loss & Boris Johnson’s condition. They can’t grasp that politicians making political decisions and political choices impact people’s lives. And sometimes ends them. As Jas found out.

    Do I wish Johnson dead? No. Do I wish dead his selfish and greedy supporters and voters? Those who were perfectly happy to ignore the systematic destruction of the NHS while they were all right Jack? Again, no.

    My sympathy, however, remains with the terrified & heartbroken victims of this crisis. The appalling & callous mishandling of which is unavoidably the responsibility of Boris Johnson.

    It would be nice to think that lessons will be learned; that, when this is over, an enormous reorganisation of the nation’s priorities will be undertaken. By both the politicians and the electorate. That, finally, people concern themselves with the value of others & much less the cost of things.

    If Johnson, in any way, might be that catalyst then he will have done one noble thing in his life.

    My breath, however, remains unheld.

      • Agree with that although I don’t really see how fault can be laid at his door or any politician to be honest regardless of political persuasion. Even had the nurses been given their pay rises, the investment been made, the full care and attention given to the nhs the virus would still have come – deaths would still have happened.
        There countries with better health care than ours who have still been ravaged far more
        savagely than we have.
        So yes in a way it is unnecessary politicisation of a problem much bigger than politics.

        • It would be nice if the staff had sufficient masks and gloves though wouldn’t it? And I bet some of those MPs cheering the voting down of an NHS pay rise hate looking at that clip now. I don’t understand why the politicising of a thing absolutely steeped in politics is going to work. Government governs and those decisions made about funding and priorities are steeped in politics however much you want to pretend they are not.

          • I think the inevitable enquiry will be very interesting in clarifying who did and didn’t do what and when.

            Tell you what else – all front line staff should be up for a monster bonus when this is under control.

          • Agree with you @Leedsboy that NHS staff absolutely should have the necessary PPE as a bare minimum.
            I have no problem per se with politicising this but I have a problem with political point scoring . Yes there have been massive failures but there have been some I.oressi e actions too. Rishi Sunak has been impressive throughout and thank God Sajid Javed threw his dummy out the pram.
            The mobilisation of the private health care centres too was impressive and bringing back NHS retired staff into the mix is also impressive. Yes mistakes have been made but that is inevitable in a fluid situation that has seen rapid change in dynamic.
            I am a lifelong labour supporter but have to give credit where it is due and not everything this govt has done in this crisis has been awful

        • The care and attention given to the NHS has been a major aspect of Tory policy and is now right in the centre of our abilty to respond. It will also speak to the number of deaths, particulalrly amongst health professionals.

          This government decided to disband the pandemic preparedness team, despite knowing that a pandemic was one of the most severe risks a nation could face. It’s left frontline carers and NHS staff facing huge risks because they decided to ignore the predictions that the Cygnus exericses provided. They have let nursing numbers plummet so that even if they can scrape together the required number of ventilators, they will be chronically short of people who know how to use them.

          They made choices, based on their polictical idealogy, which are having a significant impact now. They can clap as much as they fucking like, but they should to be held to account for what they have done.

        • @SteveT it shouldn’t be characterised as a “problem much bigger than politics”, that’s just a lazy get out of jail free card. It’s precisely the sort of problem that politics SHOULD address. Like population growth and anthropogenic climatic effects. If these things are too big for politics, we are sincerely fucked. Politics HAS to tackle these things; there’s no other agency of change available to us.

    • Powerful and righteous sentiments.
      Less than 4 weeks ago Italian politicians and medical experts were pleading with the UK to take the virus more seriously and for people to stay at home. They were largely ignored or scoffed at (including here on the AW). Now there is a sort of “lockdown lite” in UK I see many of those scoffers are now the loudest to hurl insults on Twitter and Facebook at those who still aren’t “obeying”. They’re just further evidencing that people are like sheep and, like sheep, they need a good shepherd, which unfortunately the UK didn’t have.

        • We went to a tightly packed comedy gig in London a few days before that and I’d wondered if we were in danger in retrospect that now seems a bit reckless.
          What I’m now wondering is, lets say things are allowed to open at the end of this month.. would I want to go anywhere to be part of a crowd? I’ve got a flight booked for the first week of May and a gig in the middle. The last 4 weeks have seemed like a very long time, will the next four as well?

      • @Gary it certainly isn’t lock down lite. It might have started off that way but not now. The roads are virtually deserted, there are no crowds in the parks. Supermarkets rigorously enforce the 2m distancing. I don’t know what else we can do to strengthen the lock down but it is clear people are now taking it seriously.

        • I got the impression it was in comparison with Italy and Spain, where going out even for exercise isn’t permitted and the police are clamping down on any non-essential house-leaving. (Mind you, I’ve seen some photos of Naples and Bologna recently with crowds in the streets and markets open. Hard to know if they’re genuinely recent though.)

        • We needed to go to Tesco and waited until the last hour in the hope it would be quieter and therefore safer. The staff were indeed ensuring the store stayed sparsely populated but they weren’t enforcing the clearly marked one way system at all. In fact when I politely and quite lightheartedly indicated to some people they were going the wrong way they were more than happy to admit their error as they clearly hadn’t actually appreciated the system existed. A problem the supermarkets have is that the reconfiguration of the entrances and the fact most people are spending a lot of effort to avoid people mean that many are simply not seeing (or reading) signs placed at the entrance.
          On the traffic front, I’ve seen a marked increase in the last week. Since working from home started 3 weeks ago (for me) I’ve taken the same route on my lunchtime walk. The first few days I was able to cross all the roads without even breaking stride. Today I had to wait several times for the traffic to pass before I could cross.

    • I totally agree with @Geoffbs7‘s post.

      I’d also like to add that someone said Mr. Johnson was a family man! What a load of bollocks. Maybe his ex-wife and children have a view on that. Someone who is very close to him has been the target for his temper, that is common knowledge.

      I do not wish Mr. Johnson any ill-will, I hope he comes out of this a better person who has learned from his experience. That he is thankful that he has received first rate treatment when others in this country are at this very moment are dying from C-19 without much of the NHS help he has been lucky to receive.

      As for the expected C-19 deaths for the UK, I truly hope that the 66,000 figure is way too high. However that 7,000 figure that someone has quoted above is plain bonkers, there’s already 5,300 deaths in the U.K. before today’s figures.

      Everyone stay safe.*

      • Baron I didn’t quote 7000 as my view which is what you imply. That figure was quoted by Imperial college London if we enforced Lock down and the 20,000 figure was also quoted by them as the figure without lockdown. It remains to be seen what the actual figure will be but will not be anywhere near 66,000.

        • Let’s hope not , but as, if and when the stats catch up with the daily quoted numbers, I suspect it will. The daily numbers are a snapshot of hospital deaths. Community deaths take a day or two to process and are now only getting added in, tending to retrospectively be adding a third to the earlier quoted numbers. And that doesn’t include those sudden and swift deaths of folk not ever getting to hospital and so not tested: there are a lot of sudden acute worsening of copd and heart failure happening that seem more than coincidence. Probably certified as bronchopneumonia and so not included.

          • @retropath2 this is not an argument but an addition to the discussion. There are roughly 600,000 deaths per annum in this country and 10 percent of those over 80 will die – roughly 60,000. My dad died of a combination of copd and motor neurone- he was 87 – chances are if he was around now and had the virus his cause of death would have been covid-19. It seems to me that there are a lot of cases confirmed as Covid-19 that are not necessarily just that but are a (large) contributing condition.

            • Not seeing any argument, just admiring your optimism. I agree that many will die with Covid rather than of, it just bringing forward the date it happens. Medical certification of cause of death lists contributory causes AND other non contributory conditions. I think the office of national stats only includes when Covid is the contributory cause. Like viral pneumonia secondary to Covid infection secondary to copd. Or even secondary to suspected Covid, pending a later result, which can then be used to resign the stats.

        • Steve you said nearer 7,000 when the figure that day was set to exceed 7,000.
          Over 900 dead today, that 22,000 figure is looking a little low because we haven’t reach the ‘peak’ yet.

          Why people try to play down the effect of this pandemic on the population yet are crying about tax increases amongst the cost to the economy.

          The whole world is going to pay a big price when we get through this.

          If the government had acted 4 weeks earlier the death toll would be much lower. I must admit I’m surprised that BJ & his cronies have put so much money into this in an attempt to stabilise the economy. I wonder what Jeremy/Keir would have done.

  12. Don’t like or approve of him, but have to wish him well, or at least as much chance as any other bugger out there, which, as the copied message above hints, given he will have arguably “more” chance than any other bugger, well, we’ll see……
    A chum and I were chatting online last night, having a sly reminisce and reflection about our time at Tommy’s: “Aah, Mr Johnson, would you mind seeing a couple of medical students……?” We would certainly have been thorough in our assessment, especially that bit needing a glove anyway.

  13. Let me run this up the flagpole…if, heaven forbid, Johnson pegs it, the argument for a government of national unity becomes a lot stronger. Nobody voted for Raab, Gove, Hancock or, God save us, Patel as PM. Nobody had even heard of Sunak except his constituents. This would represent a massive political opportunity for Starmer – cometh the hour, etc. Anybody saluting?

    • No one voted for Johnson either. There’ll just be a new Tory leader.

      I think it’s more important to have a decent opposition at the moment. Which hopefully we now have.

      • But who would you pick from the current cabinet? The cult of Brexit has seen capable and experienced Tories expunged, leaving a very lightweight looking cabinet. Raab is not PM material, and if he gets sick, then the spectre of Priti Patel looms large.

        • I sit her looking at my car keys hanging untouched on a hook on the wall and wonder… ‘Would I trust any of them to park my car let alone run the country in crisis?’. Real teamwork is surely the only answer at the moment and anyone who has shown themselves to be resolutely not team players in the past should be sidelined.

          • You’re splitting hairs. People vote for a candidate in their constituency in the hope that that candidate’s party, led either by a PM or a would-be PM, forms a government. Nobody would vote for a party if they didn’t want that party’s leader to become PM, would they?

            • It has a big impact sure. And an increasing one. But the PM is not elected as a PM by the population. The PM is elected by Parliament.

              Not everyone votes via party lines (I don’t for example. I vote for my preferred candidate). I suspect the country would be better if people stop voting along party lines without thinking.

              • Well, I vote for the candidate who in my opinion has the best chance of stopping the candidate I least want to get elected from getting elected. So in that sense I do the same thing. But if my preferred candidate happened to have the best chance of being elected, then…back to my original point.

            • True but the party can change the leader. Surely people know this? Haven’t they noticed the endless series of leadership polls recently? They might want the current leader to be PM, and it is not an unreasonable assumption, but that can change very quickly.

        • Yes, Johnson and Brexit are a huge part of the 80 seat majority. He’s the figurehead, or is perceived to be by a vast swath of the population. It will be interesting to see which way HMS Brexit sails if he loses control of the tiller.

          If the PM recovers – and I hope he does – he’s probably not going to be at work any time soon.

            • Two things of limited value to point out now but what the hell; our economy was going to be fucked anyway, this just brought it forward 10 months; and the UK was better prepared than most (in my industry, food distribution, at least) because May and Johnson took us close to a very similar cliff edge in February, April and October last year. We just used the same disaster plans.

              • Agreed. Yellowhammer planning has been handy. No one seems to be asking what happens in December if we are still coming out of the virus trauma and no one has been able to put in place all those trade deals.

                  • The theory seems to be people will now be through what they had stockpiled so will go out and do it again. And yet some supermarkets have just relaxed the “no more than 2” rules they belatedly adopted.

                    I’d have thought the restrictions on the numbers allowed in shops would slow the rate of buying but who knows?

    • “Nobody had even heard of Sunak except his constituents.”

      He was elected as MP in Richmond (Yorks), where they vote in droves for the Tory candidate irrespective of name, gender, race, religion, sexual orientation, colour, educational history, criminal record, voting history, favourite band, rugby or football team.

      He could probably even have got away with having been born in Lancashire.

      I bet half of his constituents didn’t even know whether they were voting for a man or a woman when they put a cross against the Conservative candidate’s name.

  15. I rather like the clapping for the NHS initiative, but it is the exception that proves the rule.
    When did this country get so cloyingly sentimental over such things?
    Dire 1980s again? Everything shite normally comes from that direction.

    I went to Arsenal-Man. Utd. in August 1986, it was awful, but the one thing I remember about it is that there was a minute’s silence for Sir Stanley Rous before the match.
    A minute’s silence? It was such a novelty.
    I don’t think I’d been at one at any of the first 400 football matches I’d attended.
    Was there a silence at QPR, say, for the Penlee Lifeboat? I doubt it. Might have been. The Hyde Park bomb? Maybe. One at Brisbane Road for the Birmingham bomb in 1974? Falklands?
    Certainly, and not unreasonably given they were football related, I remember silences for both the Bradford and Hillsborough tragedies.

    Now, even in front of a crowd of 25, the ratio is one minute’s silence/applause every two games attended. Most of the time, you don’t know who they’re for.
    No wonder the perception of what is important/what isn’t important is so mixed up.
    You shouldn’t have a minute’s silence/applause for everyone … and Johnson’s still alive!

    On the back of this, I’m telling my wife that, if I pop my clogs before her, I REFUSE permission for a minute’s silence/applause for me at the first local football match afterwards.
    I’d qualify … I once bought an enamel badge.

    • I’m convinced a couple of seasons ago, Liverpool’s home strip had a black armband built in!
      I’ve been at matches where I thought the person being celebrated was a bit of a dick so I’m not about to join in… but you then feel very conspicuous. Same as at a US sporting event and you feel like you’re the only one in the stadium not turning to face the flag when they play the national anthem.

    • Funny and true.
      At Birmingham we have minutes applause during the game for someone most weeks.
      Their picture normally gets put on the big screen too.
      Odd that out of say 21,000 people clapping there might be half a dozen that know the person they are clapping.

  16. A lot of chatter in the press about power vacuums, and Raab does seem to be under massive pressure over the lockdown review. But the parameters of the argument haven’t changed. And they are unlikely to change until more protective equipment is made available, and a co-ordinated and centralised mass testing and contact tracing programme is established. In the absence of a vaccine, it is difficult to see any other safe route out of the lockdown. Having Johnson at the helm doesn’t change any of that. The country was ill prepared at the start, and it looks like it will remain so for a while.

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