He’s now endorsed KH. I don’t know enough about her to know if she’s any good, but surely this has to be better than the endless dithering that doesn’t help anyone but Trump.
I’d like to think that Joe being replaced will make Trump nervous – even if it’s just for a moment – but I wonder if Joe has left it too late for the new nominee to win people over.
They should have resolved all of this years ago and had some decent candidate make Trump look like the the cheat, blowhard, and general cnut he is, 6 months ago. More. Instead, the Dem’s spin and bullshit machine with it’s “cunning plans” and smartarse SPAD-equivalents just had to play politics. If they do beat him – and I hope they do but know they won’t – they wouldn’t deserve it. They now have to hope Trump has a lethal coronary or stroke between now and November. and even then, Vance will win. When the US President is a cleverer, more conscientious right-winger – then we’ve REALLY got something to worry about.
Yes, I was hoping that Biden would announce two years ago that he would see out his term and no more. Whether hubris or whatever, it’s a shame that it is such a mess now and I think playing into the Reps hands. A contest now would be very decisive. I still think Harris might do it, but who would allow themselves to be nominated as VP? The bigger names might want to keep their powder dry in the hope of running in four years.
Here we go again. It was an opinion, no more strongly voiced than your own. Yet the only contribution you make to this thread is to swoop in with a gloat that I guessed wrong. I’m flattered my opinion means that much to you, but in spite of your efforts this thread isn’t about me. Give it a rest.
I was wrong about something or other myself once. Mid-90’s it was. So it can happen to the best of us. Literally. My advice is pretend you never said whatever it was you said.
The only thing less likely than Newsome agreeing to be KH’s running mate is her accepting the humiliation of agreeing to be his. Same applies for Big Gretchen
While she is frighteningly lightweight and has the look of a one-term President about her, should KH run and win this year, incumbents normally get a free shot at reelection.
All of which means it would be 2032 before her running mate was realistically able to mount a presidential campaign of his/her own.
March 1968 – LBJ not standing for a second term.
I’m usually in and around such a time anyway. No, make that ‘always’.
The U.S. Top 20 was complete shite, unless, of course, you like Otis, the Monkees, Aretha, Sly, the Box Tops, Sam & Dave, the Miracles, James Brown, Glady Knight & the Pips, and the beautiful Beatles.
Best bet is to follow the current situation, a positive move on Biden’s part, but to listen 100% to the LBJ soundtrack.
However you play it, this has to be good news for those hoping/praying Trump won’t win (again). At the very least there’ll be a candidate who can walk up and down airplane stairs and chew gum and decide to bomb Moscow all at the same time.
The mess the Democrats are in is of their own making.
Much as I despise Trump and everything he stands for, he shook up the Republican party and changed it completely from it’s old hidebound ways.
Does anyone remember how hard the old-school Republicans like Dubya and his brother Jeb fought to keep Trump out of the candidature running and failed completely? There was to be no turning back once he was their nominated candidate.
The Democrats thought they were getting a change with Obama, but he proved to be a bit of a lame duck, truth be told. After he’d served his 2 terms and underachieved, they reverted to the old party machine politics and nominated Hilary Clinton, probably the most unpopular candidate of this century so far. They don’t seem to have learned anything from that experience either.
Numerically, in recent times, the Democrats have always been supported by more Americans in presidential elections than those supporting the Republicans. It is an anomaly of the US electoral system that a few swing states dictate the outcome of an election, and the Republicans seem to be able to win those swing states more regularly than the Democrats can.
In 2000, Al Gore won 51m votes and George W. Bush secured 50.4m, and yet the latter was named president. Hillary Clinton secured 65.8m votes in the 2016 election and Trump only reached 63m, and yet Trump was named president.
In this election, too, it will come down to who can secure the swing states in the electoral college. I think Harris can beat Trump in numerical terms; Trump will now become the decrepit politician and Harris will tie him in knots over issues of abortion and the Palestinian conflict (thus winning over young Americans, particularly women). But who knows how the election will play out in those key states.
Again, how the Democrats could be in this position against Trump at this point in the presidential race is beyond belief. While Kamala Harris is an admirable candidate from many perspectives, she is not going to lure one Trump voter away. In their eyes, she is an exemplar of all their preconceptions about the Democrat woke lefties: black, female, long record of advocacy for illegal immigrants, behavioural interventions for young offenders etc etc. On top of that, she ha hardly set the world on fire as VP (a tough ask, I know).
I don’t know if such a thing as a safe pair of hands exists in the Democrats, short of an Obama resurrection, but they need to look at all options.
Trump voters will vote for Trump, it is the waverers she, or whoever the candidate is, need to get. I know from personal experience that a number of moderate Republicans can’t stand Trump.
But will the anti-Trump Republicans vote Democrat or will they just stay at home?
I should think Michelle Obama would be a more popular candidate than Kamala Harris.
Popular enough? Don’t know.
Anyway, she ruled herself out contention prior to the LAST election and hasn’t expressed any interest since.
Meanwhile over in Montesito, Meghan Markke is waiting for the phone to ring. A sound that will hopefully not come this year, or indeed any election year between now and Doomsday (or January 5, 2029as it’s known to the rest of us).
According to the NYT donations made to the Democratic coffers spiked immediately after Biden stepped down, taking $30m since the announcement. It’s not all going to Harris, as it covers all candidates and aligned political non profits, but nonetheless suggests a level of confidence is returning.
I see people on X/Twitter, that haven of reason and sensible debate, pointing out that Joe’s letter was not on official White House or presidential paper and he did not make an announcement via a press conference or TV address to the nation. Therefore, they allege, he is secretly incapacitated and/or maybe, like, man, somebody else wrote the letter?!!!!!
It would be nice if such people could just take a day off and calm down.
Alan Lichtman is the bloke who’s correctly predicted the outcome of every election since Lincoln [citation needed], using his own set of key indicators:
“A distinguished professor of history at American University, Allan Lichtman has made a name for himself through one unusual talent: He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine elections out of the 10 most recent presidential races, using a model he invented known as the 13 keys.
The only election he has incorrectly predicted was the 2000 presidential election, selecting Al Gore over George Bush in a prediction he insists was the correct choice, saying the 2000 election was stolen.
The 13 keys method was created in partnership with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The pair adapted models used to predict earthquakes to better understand the American political sphere.
According to the American University’s website, the 13 keys are:
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand.
“A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian. ”
That was indeed my winning formula and I wish I’d stuck with it. Unfortunately, the fifth year I bet on Belmarsh. Turned out it’s not even a university.
A consultant obstetrician I once worked with always told prospective mothers what he guessed they’d be having. Writing the opposite down in a desk diary. When he was right, they would praise his skills. If wrong, he’d look offended and ask if they were sure, before checking his book, confirming to them he was actually right. Ultrasound somewhat spoilt his fun, of course.
I don’t think Harris is the best candidate to defeat Trump. She’s too much the west coast liberal who will find it hard – albeit not impossible – to connect with people in the rustbelt and rural midwest states. Also, she’s an easy target for all the racist and misogynist shit that will unfortunately sway a lot of voters.
But the fact is that she’s a lot younger than Trump, who has been showing signs of his mind going to pieces, and if she does well out on the stump and in the TV debates she could make herself look the better choice of the two. It would also help if she picks a middle aged white guy with a big working class constituency as running mate and gives him a prominent role in the campaign; that would give it a balance that could attract plenty of voters.
She will be an easy target for racist and misogynist folks, but most of them are natural Trump supporters anyway. Hopefully, the important ‘swing voters’ might be put off by all the coming nastiness.
I hope the VP choice is a good one and we can perhaps be rid of the Orange monster come November.
Obviously, he’ll challenge the result if he loses, but…
Her veep is a massive call so much more than any before a chance for a dream ticket rather than trumps mini me (ok he did call him hitler but he’s certainly a mini me now)
I’ve just seen footage of Harris outside a record store having bought a Miles Davis record and then telling reporters about George Clinton and Bootsy Collins. The reporters didn’t know who they were and she tells them they need to get educated.
Two different YT clips in record stores.
In Grand Rapids, Michigan she picked “The Essential Miles Davis”.
The three records on the other occasion in a DC record store were Charles Mingus (not sure which album), Roy Ayers “Everybody Loves The Sunshine” and the Ella Fitzgerald/Louis Armstrong “Porgy & Bess” album.
Kamala singularly unimpressive from my distant and detached position. Hasn’t got the charisma , the breadth of policy knowledge, the experience or the gravitas. Still stranger things ….
The fact that so many knives are aimed at Kamala Harris currently, from both Trump supporters and from his detractors too, makes me wish her well.
Always thought Biden was a shifty-eyed old cove. A typical party machine candidate, just interested in getting and hanging onto the job.
Both these parties are living in a fantasy world at this stage.
The same people who in March would have told you all the reasons Harris was unsuitable for the campaign will now assure you she’s the only choice. The top of the party will percolate with righteous self aggrandisement at standing an ethnic minority woman. The fact that she’s not Trump will be used to shout down any self criticism, and the lack of self criticism will mean the party continues to stumble along. No one will bother to ask whether she’d actually be a good President – it doesn’t matter whether the President can stay conscious, so long as they come from your team.
As for Harris, I’d have thought there are only three things that matter now: will the party unite behind her, what do her polling numbers do in battleground states, and can she disassociate herself from Joe Biden. The last of these is probably most important, given what’s been happening to incumbents across the Western world.
If you can’t be good, be lucky. The Democrats are hopeless, but this is a volatile campaign so good fortune might yet save the day, although I rather doubt it.
As a bystander (although none of us are truly bystanders to what happens in USA, USA, USA) it’s fun watching those fuckers on Faux News tying themselves in knots. They don’t know whether to Stick or twist. A ferment of righteous indignation for 3 1/2 years having to re recalibrated.
Sean Shammity for example in consecutive sentences says it’s a fraud against democrats that having effectively been nominated as the 2024 candidate he is now withdrawing and shouldn’t be allowed to (people having voted for his candidacy). Then in the next sentence saying he should resign as president immediately. Where’s the consistency there.
I think changing candidates is not so straight forward. I gather the vast sums of money raised for Biden (Harris) can’t so easily be transferred to, say Newsome as it wasn’t pleased to him.
They have spent so long demonising Biden but all along he is there go-to rival. Particularly after the debate. Frankly not sure Harris is much better but, hey ho, in a country of 320m the cream rises to the top.
They want him to resign so that Harris is clearly the incumbent and can have inflation, etc, hung round her neck. It’s a trap the Democrats shouldn’t fall into, and probably won’t (although you never know).
That said, it should be alarming to absolutely everyone that a man who is apparently lacking the mental alacrity to campaign for a job will continue to do said job for another 6 months.
Personally, I think Biden should be giving a TV address to confirm his decision and demonstrate that the lights are still on. It seems bizarre that this announcement was made via his Twitter account, but then perhaps it’s just another demonstration of the Trumpification of US politics.
I know what you mean, but inflation isn’t a Trump lie. It’s a very real factor in people’s lives and an enormous issue in elections across the West.
The US have done a great job of bringing it under control, but the problem that faced Biden was the lag before the average person actually feels the drop in the headline rate of inflation in their actual wallets.
Harris can eat the same risk and hope to god people in swing states are feeling richer by November, or she can avoid association. Looking at elections across the West, the latter would seem more prudent.
Well I hope Harris takes him on on everything … Biden halved inflation … there were more wars under trump … 107% of black jobs have not been taken by illegal immigrants … trump hasn’t almost completed the wall
There’s a record of US presidents being mentally incapacitated. Reagan was reportedly close to ga-ga for much of his second term, and going further back (over 100 years) Woodrow Wilson was flattened by a stroke for his final year in office. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson
She’s just made a speech which went across, over, and down as well as could be hoped.
“I prosecuted sex predators. Trump is one.
I shut down for-profit scam colleges. He ran one.
I held big banks accountable. He’s owned by them.”
“I was a courtroom prosecutor. In those roles I took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women. Fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type.”
Whatever doubts we may have about her, they’re as nothing compared to the certainties we have about Trump. She’s good news.
At last, the voice of reason. Whatever differences we’ve had in the past, and don’t think I’ve forgotten your deeply hurtful jibes re the Head movie, we can agree listening to that speech has been nothing short of heart (and hope) lifting. God bless you, HP, and god bless America!
The Dems waste six months pandering to Joe’s delusions he is fit enough to face four more years in office and take less than 36 hours to anoint a candidate who they didn’t deem worthy of being POTUS in 2020 and again earlier this year?
I hope for all of our sakes their rush to judgement pays off
I think the news from the US has been so irredeemably shite for so long, having to stare at that Cheeto Jezus balloon-knot face every time you fire up the news, we’ve forgotten the ability to be simply hopeful. Trump is poison of the worst kind, and Harris could be the antidote. All the criticism of her not being qualified for the job? How did her career go again? Lawyer, prosecutor, District Attorney, State Attorney General, US Senator, Vice President … what else does she need? She didn’t make much of an impact during her veepship, but no VP does – it’s a weird job. Who knows – the Presidency might just be her ideal job.
You’ve carped on about her various failings previously (and failings she no doubt has) – just allow yourself a little fist-bump, a graceful grateful twirl and a “Maybe, just maybe, it won’t be Trump after all”.
Thanks for the well meaning advice, but I’ll hold off on the Panglossian fist bumps for a while if you don’t mind.
If we have learned nothing else from the last decade we should at least have learned that voting for someone or something purely on the basis it is not someone or something else rarely ends well.
As I keep saying, I hope I’m wrong but quick fixes aren’t always the best fixes
Some friends have been excited about KH because they feel having a candidate from an ethnic minority translates as having the bloc vote of said ethnic minority. Which we know is more or less utter balloons. I share some ethnic characteristics with the late great Rashid Sanook for instance, but thats about it. I’d add to your point, @jaygee, that voting for someone based on their ethnicity and gender, as well as the fact that they’re not X or Y, is also not a great idea.
Personally, I do hope she walks it, to relegate the ogre to ignominy, continue to nurture growth, keep NATO reassured, to finally have a word with the ghastly Netanyahu, defuse and restructure immigration debate and give abortion rights the national visibility it deserves. The insanely demented tone coming from GOP hard-liners in last few days would suggest they’re quite rightly, frit
“voting for someone or something purely on the basis it is not someone or something else rarely ends well.”
That might have been true for Biden (apart from a pretty damn good record as prexy), but to say this of Harris is demeaning of her accomplishments and capabilities. If (e.g.) a man had the same history, maybe a white man, of the same age and as personally acceptable/attractive, I doubt anybody would say a vote for him would be based only on the fact that he was not (e.g.) Trump. His qualities would be recognised.
In the last election, there were voters who wouldn’t vote for Clinton because they “didn’t like her”, as fatuous a reason as voting for her because she wasn’t Trump. Harris is a perfectly acceptable candidate in her own right and shouldn’t be dismissed as the Not Trump option.
No advice given, Jaygee (who would take advice from me?) just thoughts on how we should be taking this as good news rather than “Let’s be careful.”
Surely, however incompetent KH turns out to be she would be far, far, far better than Trump? Let’s pray I’m not Wrong….
She’d be competent at worst, an inspired leader at best. Trump is far worse than incompetent (and doubly incontinent), he’s corrupt and vicious and doesn’t give a shit for anyone else. He doesn’t even aspire to competence.
A genuine question from the ignorant. If KH manages to beat Trump in November, is there anything to stop him running in 2028? Apart from small arms fire, that is.
He’s wearing nappies (“diapers”) already. The brand he uses is Depends. He is doubly incontinent – trebly if you count the farts. There is a lot of (er …) first hand testimony out there if you can (er …} stomach it.
It suddenly seems that everyone in the British news media has a close knowledge of the Democratic Party, and can state with long nurtured authority that Josh Shapiro becoming VP nominee would swing the key state of Pennsylvania, or something similar, although for some reason they have never mentioned him before. It reminds me of when Taylor Swift started going out with Travis Kelce and everyone pretended to have heard of him and his team, and could say exactly what a tight end was (without giggling).
People this side of The Big Pond dismissing her as “Can’t be any good because I’ve not heard of her doing anything, while Vice President” is ignoring the fact that VPs aren’t generally allowed to do anything that might overshadow their President even slightly, and that the news media over here is only interested in the President’s doings, unless a VP were to disgrace him/herself.
In a recent study, those elected to the office of President of the United States for the first time had no prior experience of being President and were therefore unqualified for the job. Also, all Vice Presidents – who have no power to do anything but hang around in case the President dies – were deemed “ineffectual” in office.
It feels like, with the failing, doddery Biden gone, that the emphasis is now on Trump and his appalling VP nominee, as the weak, unacceptable choice and that feels great right now. Harris is offering fresh inspiration and is seemingly hitting the target. I know we shouldn’t get carried away and no doubt there will be snags, but still.
Liz Truss about to appear on Fox News (Neil
Cavuto one of their more reasonable hosts). Could be interesting. See how they introduce her …. “Failed UK PM …..”. I think not. Lucrative gig I imagine for someone out of work.
Interview lasted 3m 38s. She was introduced as former PM and throughout inter view as Prime Minister (consistent with former presidents who are always referred to as President)
She didn’t promote pork or cheese but to discuss Kamala Harris and women in politics. She knew the got whistle of similarity of immigration inflation and failed promises to both US and UK as readings for electoral change.
She rubbished Harris as a non achiever.
Hilariously she said the Tories have a history of putting women in high position and how well “we” (I.e. she) had achieved.
I imagine the viewers lapped it up as it pushed all their buttons.
If I was running KH’s campaign, I ‘d be stealing Trump’s metaphorical clothes by running a few ads that aimed his jibes about JB being old and out of touch back at him
I’d like to see the Democrats fighting this election just as dirty as the Republicans.
But with some of the wit and charm that Trump and Vance could never achieve.
Trump’s utter lack of wit and charm is why he appeals to a voter base comprising those HRC foolishly referred to as “deplorables” in marginal flyover states she didn’t deem worthy of visiting.
In losing those Electoral College votes, HRC birthed Trump’s Presidency as sure as Corbyn served as an unwitting John the Baptist for Boris Johnson.
More of an “American Hitler” than Trump’s uncouth Eric Roehm, Vance possesses a lot more wit and charm than many here credit him with.
Win or lose this election, JDV will be running for POTUS in 2028 and almost certainly again in 2032.
We’ve seen these Shadow Trumps appear and disappear over the years, and good ol’ JD is just the latest American Hitler to stand at Trump’s shoulder for a while. There’ll always be someone waiting in the wings.
Here’s how Scary American Hitler is looking to American Nazis:
“JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party’s convention. He’s the first to have a net negative favorable rating. Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.”
Like we’re all political experts on here, yeah right. We come up to the bar, offer up our profound insights based on reading that morning’s paper (and some guy we follow on Twitter X) and then wander off into the night. Always certain, sometimes Wrong, that’s us.
“You may want to dial it back a bit”, Jaygee. Amazingly enough, my opinion that Biden would hang in there wasn’t based on inside information, or my much-vaunted ability to see into the future. It was nothing more than an opinion – and when I have one, it’s necessarily “lofty” or “dismissive” if it doesn’t agree with your own. That’s just the way things are round here.
I never said that KH was “nothing special”, but thanks for crediting me with a loftily dismissive opinion I never had. I said something like I couldn’t remember why I’d been impressed by her when she got the job as veep. It was probably because I *liked* her, because I didn’t know much about her, and this isn’t enough.
I don’t claim to have “insights”, either – I leave the piercing analysis to sharper, better informed minds than my own.
As to giving you sources about poll results – what am I? Google? dOyurOWnRsrCh.
@h-p-saucecraft
Unreserved apologies for my inability to “dial it back a bit”, HP.
My lapse in posting etiquette is presumably a nasty side effect of the Alzheimers and Parkinsons Disease you rather tastelessly diagnosed me as suffering from on the “Absolute Shower” thread a few weeks back.
Same ailments doubtless also account for my unreasenable expectation that anyone posting quotes containing facts attribute their sources rather then insisting others “do their own research”.
Respectfully suggest further discussions on the above points be limited to PMs so as not to disrupt the board
Watched some CNN analysis last night. They reckon chances of a win for the Democrats have gone from about 3% to 40% with Harris * They stressed early days yet, but the VP candidate selection could be crucial to garner enough votes for the electoral college probably from northern states, but there is also a path to win via southern states. Democrats need to win popular vote by some margin to get in and how well a 3rd candidate does (mainly anti vaxxer RFK jr) could prove crucial.
* Mainly based on opinion polls analyzed by the excellent John King
Yes. I started out thinking he is dangerous because as an intelligent man he can’t really believe the things he says are true, and he was simply letting useful idiots do his work.
Towards the end, when he was being cut loose by young Donald, it seemed he really does, which is scary in a different way.
He seemed literally possessed by some inner demon trying to escape its host, visible in the seemingly unconscious tics and grimaces that played over his face continuously.
Strange and scary that he was so close to, and advising, Presidents for so long.
The scenes where he packed his bag and lit out of his Washington DC hotel as January 6th unfolded. What a rat.
He did indeed look truly evil as his rage took hold in the final 15 minutes or so. He looked exactly like Fenella the Witch out of ‘Chorlton and the Wheelies’
Someone asked “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”
Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:
A few things spring to mind;
Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility – for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is – his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults – he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface.
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff – the Queensberry rules of basic decency – and he breaks them all. He punches downwards – which a gentleman should, would, could never do – and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless – and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority – perhaps a third – of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think ‘Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W. look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
‘My God… what… have… I… created?’
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.
On the remarkable The Rest Is Politics US latest edition, Anthony Scaramucci suggests that after the Democrats’ National Convention, Trump will fire JD Vance and replace him with Nicky Haley. Then he himself will resign from the race, citing health issues (which will be bogus of course). Thus it will be an all-female election
Scaramucci suggests this will happen because Trump will see the writing on the wall – that he’s going to lose – and would rather resign than lose.
Can’t see it myself as Trump embodies most if not all the key indicators of being the
worst kind of narcissistic sociopath.
If the events of 6 Jan, 2020 prove nothing else it’s that the Orange Jesus is not going to acknowledge, entertain or bow down in the face of facts that run counter to his entitled worldview.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he/his people had sought out Haley before settling on Vance for VP, though. Like the Dems’ Newsome, she’s probably pinning her hopes on her party’s chosen candidate either being totally out of her depth (Harris) or self-destructing (Trump/Vance).
I can’t see it. Election is possibly the only route out of his legal and financial troubles, and surely he loves the spotlight too much to surrender it voluntarily.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/joe-biden-withdraw-running-president
Even worse news for Trump is that Biden has tellingly not endorsed KH
To run in his stead
I hope I’m wrong, Jay, but I think they’ve NOW handed it to Trump. Cue internal conflict in the Democratic Party.
He’s now endorsed KH. I don’t know enough about her to know if she’s any good, but surely this has to be better than the endless dithering that doesn’t help anyone but Trump.
I’d like to think that Joe being replaced will make Trump nervous – even if it’s just for a moment – but I wonder if Joe has left it too late for the new nominee to win people over.
Yes he has (endorsed Harris)
He has now, but not when the OP went up.
His doing so doesn’t however guarantee her the nomination
This is going to run and run
Typically graceless reaction from Trump.
The not terribly convincing coat of newer, kinder Orange Jesus
paint he sported after the assassination didn’t take long to
fade away
It really was graceless, wasn’t it?
“It will be easier to beat her than Biden.” Or something similar.
They should have resolved all of this years ago and had some decent candidate make Trump look like the the cheat, blowhard, and general cnut he is, 6 months ago. More. Instead, the Dem’s spin and bullshit machine with it’s “cunning plans” and smartarse SPAD-equivalents just had to play politics. If they do beat him – and I hope they do but know they won’t – they wouldn’t deserve it. They now have to hope Trump has a lethal coronary or stroke between now and November. and even then, Vance will win. When the US President is a cleverer, more conscientious right-winger – then we’ve REALLY got something to worry about.
Yes, I was hoping that Biden would announce two years ago that he would see out his term and no more. Whether hubris or whatever, it’s a shame that it is such a mess now and I think playing into the Reps hands. A contest now would be very decisive. I still think Harris might do it, but who would allow themselves to be nominated as VP? The bigger names might want to keep their powder dry in the hope of running in four years.
I remember being impressed by Kamala Harris, and I can’t now think why.
I thought you (very firmly) told us that the only way Biden steps down is if he was in a coffin? That there was no way otherwise.
It appears you were wrong.
Yes. And – so?
Just interesting, that’s all.
It is good to see you can acknowledge it, after the strongly dismissive comments you directed towards people who suggested this might happen.
Here we go again. It was an opinion, no more strongly voiced than your own. Yet the only contribution you make to this thread is to swoop in with a gloat that I guessed wrong. I’m flattered my opinion means that much to you, but in spite of your efforts this thread isn’t about me. Give it a rest.
Here we go again (?)
I really was not ‘gloating’ at all.
I was wrong about something or other myself once. Mid-90’s it was. So it can happen to the best of us. Literally. My advice is pretend you never said whatever it was you said.
You’re wrong about that, Gar.
Again, nearly four months to go. This news is Trump’s worst nightmare. It takes away much of his ammunition.
If she chooses Newsom as a running mate that would be a dream ticket (although personally I’d prefer them the other way round).
Every microphone is going to be listening for when he calls her various charming epithets. Think he could inhibit N and C words? I suspect not.
The only thing less likely than Newsome agreeing to be KH’s running mate is her accepting the humiliation of agreeing to be his. Same applies for Big Gretchen
While she is frighteningly lightweight and has the look of a one-term President about her, should KH run and win this year, incumbents normally get a free shot at reelection.
All of which means it would be 2032 before her running mate was realistically able to mount a presidential campaign of his/her own.
What a fucking mess
March 1968 – LBJ not standing for a second term.
I’m usually in and around such a time anyway. No, make that ‘always’.
The U.S. Top 20 was complete shite, unless, of course, you like Otis, the Monkees, Aretha, Sly, the Box Tops, Sam & Dave, the Miracles, James Brown, Glady Knight & the Pips, and the beautiful Beatles.
Best bet is to follow the current situation, a positive move on Biden’s part, but to listen 100% to the LBJ soundtrack.
I think Joe has done the right thing. In a fairly long line of doing the right thing. Donald is now the clear incoherent in the race.
However you play it, this has to be good news for those hoping/praying Trump won’t win (again). At the very least there’ll be a candidate who can walk up and down airplane stairs and chew gum and decide to bomb Moscow all at the same time.
This is punchy stuff. I don’t like it much but American politics is different.
The mess the Democrats are in is of their own making.
Much as I despise Trump and everything he stands for, he shook up the Republican party and changed it completely from it’s old hidebound ways.
Does anyone remember how hard the old-school Republicans like Dubya and his brother Jeb fought to keep Trump out of the candidature running and failed completely? There was to be no turning back once he was their nominated candidate.
The Democrats thought they were getting a change with Obama, but he proved to be a bit of a lame duck, truth be told. After he’d served his 2 terms and underachieved, they reverted to the old party machine politics and nominated Hilary Clinton, probably the most unpopular candidate of this century so far. They don’t seem to have learned anything from that experience either.
Numerically, in recent times, the Democrats have always been supported by more Americans in presidential elections than those supporting the Republicans. It is an anomaly of the US electoral system that a few swing states dictate the outcome of an election, and the Republicans seem to be able to win those swing states more regularly than the Democrats can.
In 2000, Al Gore won 51m votes and George W. Bush secured 50.4m, and yet the latter was named president. Hillary Clinton secured 65.8m votes in the 2016 election and Trump only reached 63m, and yet Trump was named president.
In this election, too, it will come down to who can secure the swing states in the electoral college. I think Harris can beat Trump in numerical terms; Trump will now become the decrepit politician and Harris will tie him in knots over issues of abortion and the Palestinian conflict (thus winning over young Americans, particularly women). But who knows how the election will play out in those key states.
@Munster
Have yo ever heard KH speak? The only person she ends up tying in knots is herself
Obama had obstructionist Congress to work through.
Nonetheless, he passed the ACA. Dodd-Frank. ARRA. DACA.
Why do you think he underachieved?
Again, how the Democrats could be in this position against Trump at this point in the presidential race is beyond belief. While Kamala Harris is an admirable candidate from many perspectives, she is not going to lure one Trump voter away. In their eyes, she is an exemplar of all their preconceptions about the Democrat woke lefties: black, female, long record of advocacy for illegal immigrants, behavioural interventions for young offenders etc etc. On top of that, she ha hardly set the world on fire as VP (a tough ask, I know).
I don’t know if such a thing as a safe pair of hands exists in the Democrats, short of an Obama resurrection, but they need to look at all options.
Interestingly, BO hasn’t endorsed KH.
Be interesting to see who – if anyone – he does endorse, or whether he’s hoping they’ll turn to Michelle O as a unity candidate at the convention
Worst-rated of the last five VPs entering their fourth year in office by some distance
https://www.latimes.com/projects/kamala-harris-approval-rating-polls-vs-biden-other-vps/
Trump voters will vote for Trump, it is the waverers she, or whoever the candidate is, need to get. I know from personal experience that a number of moderate Republicans can’t stand Trump.
But will the anti-Trump Republicans vote Democrat or will they just stay at home?
I should think Michelle Obama would be a more popular candidate than Kamala Harris.
Popular enough? Don’t know.
Anyway, she ruled herself out contention prior to the LAST election and hasn’t expressed any interest since.
She will hopefully attract the people who wouldn’t vote rather then the choice of Trump/Biden.
George Clooney, your time has come.
A Clooney / De Nero ticket – now that would be something….
Meanwhile over in Montesito, Meghan Markke is waiting for the phone to ring. A sound that will hopefully not come this year, or indeed any election year between now and Doomsday (or January 5, 2029as it’s known to the rest of us).
According to the NYT donations made to the Democratic coffers spiked immediately after Biden stepped down, taking $30m since the announcement. It’s not all going to Harris, as it covers all candidates and aligned political non profits, but nonetheless suggests a level of confidence is returning.
Well that’s natural given that many large donors were withholding donations as a way to pressure JB to step down.
She can also use bidens war chest of 200 million now …. I think coz she was his veep but I’m not sure
I see people on X/Twitter, that haven of reason and sensible debate, pointing out that Joe’s letter was not on official White House or presidential paper and he did not make an announcement via a press conference or TV address to the nation. Therefore, they allege, he is secretly incapacitated and/or maybe, like, man, somebody else wrote the letter?!!!!!
It would be nice if such people could just take a day off and calm down.
US politics really is divisive, isn’t it?
NO IT ISN’T!!!
BEHIND YOU!!
Actually on a sloping warehouse roof somewhere over to your right
Alan Lichtman is the bloke who’s correctly predicted the outcome of every election since Lincoln [citation needed], using his own set of key indicators:
“A distinguished professor of history at American University, Allan Lichtman has made a name for himself through one unusual talent: He has correctly predicted the outcome of nine elections out of the 10 most recent presidential races, using a model he invented known as the 13 keys.
The only election he has incorrectly predicted was the 2000 presidential election, selecting Al Gore over George Bush in a prediction he insists was the correct choice, saying the 2000 election was stolen.
The 13 keys method was created in partnership with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. The pair adapted models used to predict earthquakes to better understand the American political sphere.
According to the American University’s website, the 13 keys are:
Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third-party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman is not slated to give his official prediction until August, but so far, he thinks Joe Biden has the upper hand.
“A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” he told the Guardian. ”
I wonder how he’s seeing Harris’ chances?
Alan Lichtman reminds me a bit of me. I predicted the winner of the Oxford Cambridge Boat Race correctly four years in a row.
If only Paul the octopus was still with us
Gary’s prediction, IIRC, was “it’ll be either Oxford or Cambridge.”
Oarsome performance on the boat race predictions, HP
That was indeed my winning formula and I wish I’d stuck with it. Unfortunately, the fifth year I bet on Belmarsh. Turned out it’s not even a university.
Easy mistake to make what with all those uniforms
A consultant obstetrician I once worked with always told prospective mothers what he guessed they’d be having. Writing the opposite down in a desk diary. When he was right, they would praise his skills. If wrong, he’d look offended and ask if they were sure, before checking his book, confirming to them he was actually right. Ultrasound somewhat spoilt his fun, of course.
I don’t think Harris is the best candidate to defeat Trump. She’s too much the west coast liberal who will find it hard – albeit not impossible – to connect with people in the rustbelt and rural midwest states. Also, she’s an easy target for all the racist and misogynist shit that will unfortunately sway a lot of voters.
But the fact is that she’s a lot younger than Trump, who has been showing signs of his mind going to pieces, and if she does well out on the stump and in the TV debates she could make herself look the better choice of the two. It would also help if she picks a middle aged white guy with a big working class constituency as running mate and gives him a prominent role in the campaign; that would give it a balance that could attract plenty of voters.
She will be an easy target for racist and misogynist folks, but most of them are natural Trump supporters anyway. Hopefully, the important ‘swing voters’ might be put off by all the coming nastiness.
I hope the VP choice is a good one and we can perhaps be rid of the Orange monster come November.
Obviously, he’ll challenge the result if he loses, but…
Her veep is a massive call so much more than any before a chance for a dream ticket rather than trumps mini me (ok he did call him hitler but he’s certainly a mini me now)
Interesting to see if trump now returns to the Donald we know and love after being the voice of peace, reason and unity for a week.
@Clive
He was back to his old self the moment Biden’s letter went out
I must have missed this period of voice of peace, reason and unity!!!
😉
(There wasn’t any, right?)
It was the first few minutes of his acceptance speech apparently.
He’s already protested that the Democrats owe him a refund for the campaign funds he has spent attacking Biden!
I’ve just seen footage of Harris outside a record store having bought a Miles Davis record and then telling reporters about George Clinton and Bootsy Collins. The reporters didn’t know who they were and she tells them they need to get educated.
I’m with Kamala.
It’s a small point – but which record was it?
Interviewer: “Let’s talk about your record …”
I’d watch that interview…
I don’t know – I don’t think she says. Probably Kind of Blue, given she’s a Democrat.
Would have been interesting if it was Live at The Fillmore or Agharta…
Two different YT clips in record stores.
In Grand Rapids, Michigan she picked “The Essential Miles Davis”.
The three records on the other occasion in a DC record store were Charles Mingus (not sure which album), Roy Ayers “Everybody Loves The Sunshine” and the Ella Fitzgerald/Louis Armstrong “Porgy & Bess” album.
Yes I just saw the Porgy and Bess one and came over here to let everyone know.
I am willing to bet that Trump doesn’t own a single record.
10 to 1 that he owns a copy of Moondance…
Ted Nugent I reck
He has a criminal record.
Nah, nah – just cos Ted looks like the Jan 6th QAnon Shaman doesn’t necessarily mean that Trump would listen to Cat Scratch Fever…
Let My Children Hear Music @Mike_H
Yes. That’s the one.
Missing from my collection.
Wonder how much time she’s got to listen to music, these days.
Mary J Blige – Work That, Beyoncé – Freedom & Kendrick Lamar – Not Like Us are all on her playlist at her rallies.
Kamala singularly unimpressive from my distant and detached position. Hasn’t got the charisma , the breadth of policy knowledge, the experience or the gravitas. Still stranger things ….
Who would want their country run by an over-qualified lawyer? Um….
A clever line in a newspaper here – to win she will need to be Khamala cameleon.
*wipes tea from keyboard*
And Trump has all those attributes?
The fact that so many knives are aimed at Kamala Harris currently, from both Trump supporters and from his detractors too, makes me wish her well.
Always thought Biden was a shifty-eyed old cove. A typical party machine candidate, just interested in getting and hanging onto the job.
Both these parties are living in a fantasy world at this stage.
The same people who in March would have told you all the reasons Harris was unsuitable for the campaign will now assure you she’s the only choice. The top of the party will percolate with righteous self aggrandisement at standing an ethnic minority woman. The fact that she’s not Trump will be used to shout down any self criticism, and the lack of self criticism will mean the party continues to stumble along. No one will bother to ask whether she’d actually be a good President – it doesn’t matter whether the President can stay conscious, so long as they come from your team.
As for Harris, I’d have thought there are only three things that matter now: will the party unite behind her, what do her polling numbers do in battleground states, and can she disassociate herself from Joe Biden. The last of these is probably most important, given what’s been happening to incumbents across the Western world.
If you can’t be good, be lucky. The Democrats are hopeless, but this is a volatile campaign so good fortune might yet save the day, although I rather doubt it.
As a bystander (although none of us are truly bystanders to what happens in USA, USA, USA) it’s fun watching those fuckers on Faux News tying themselves in knots. They don’t know whether to Stick or twist. A ferment of righteous indignation for 3 1/2 years having to re recalibrated.
Sean Shammity for example in consecutive sentences says it’s a fraud against democrats that having effectively been nominated as the 2024 candidate he is now withdrawing and shouldn’t be allowed to (people having voted for his candidacy). Then in the next sentence saying he should resign as president immediately. Where’s the consistency there.
I think changing candidates is not so straight forward. I gather the vast sums of money raised for Biden (Harris) can’t so easily be transferred to, say Newsome as it wasn’t pleased to him.
They have spent so long demonising Biden but all along he is there go-to rival. Particularly after the debate. Frankly not sure Harris is much better but, hey ho, in a country of 320m the cream rises to the top.
They want him to resign so that Harris is clearly the incumbent and can have inflation, etc, hung round her neck. It’s a trap the Democrats shouldn’t fall into, and probably won’t (although you never know).
That said, it should be alarming to absolutely everyone that a man who is apparently lacking the mental alacrity to campaign for a job will continue to do said job for another 6 months.
Personally, I think Biden should be giving a TV address to confirm his decision and demonstrate that the lights are still on. It seems bizarre that this announcement was made via his Twitter account, but then perhaps it’s just another demonstration of the Trumpification of US politics.
Inflation is a trump lie … it’s currently under 3%
I know what you mean, but inflation isn’t a Trump lie. It’s a very real factor in people’s lives and an enormous issue in elections across the West.
The US have done a great job of bringing it under control, but the problem that faced Biden was the lag before the average person actually feels the drop in the headline rate of inflation in their actual wallets.
Harris can eat the same risk and hope to god people in swing states are feeling richer by November, or she can avoid association. Looking at elections across the West, the latter would seem more prudent.
Well I hope Harris takes him on on everything … Biden halved inflation … there were more wars under trump … 107% of black jobs have not been taken by illegal immigrants … trump hasn’t almost completed the wall
There’s a record of US presidents being mentally incapacitated. Reagan was reportedly close to ga-ga for much of his second term, and going further back (over 100 years) Woodrow Wilson was flattened by a stroke for his final year in office.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson
She’s just made a speech which went across, over, and down as well as could be hoped.
“I prosecuted sex predators. Trump is one.
I shut down for-profit scam colleges. He ran one.
I held big banks accountable. He’s owned by them.”
“I was a courtroom prosecutor. In those roles I took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women. Fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own gain. So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type.”
Whatever doubts we may have about her, they’re as nothing compared to the certainties we have about Trump. She’s good news.
At last, the voice of reason. Whatever differences we’ve had in the past, and don’t think I’ve forgotten your deeply hurtful jibes re the Head movie, we can agree listening to that speech has been nothing short of heart (and hope) lifting. God bless you, HP, and god bless America!
The Dems waste six months pandering to Joe’s delusions he is fit enough to face four more years in office and take less than 36 hours to anoint a candidate who they didn’t deem worthy of being POTUS in 2020 and again earlier this year?
I hope for all of our sakes their rush to judgement pays off
Grateful, small mercies and all that. Stop carping, rejoice!
Indeed.
Actually feel quite optimistic now!
I think the news from the US has been so irredeemably shite for so long, having to stare at that Cheeto Jezus balloon-knot face every time you fire up the news, we’ve forgotten the ability to be simply hopeful. Trump is poison of the worst kind, and Harris could be the antidote. All the criticism of her not being qualified for the job? How did her career go again? Lawyer, prosecutor, District Attorney, State Attorney General, US Senator, Vice President … what else does she need? She didn’t make much of an impact during her veepship, but no VP does – it’s a weird job. Who knows – the Presidency might just be her ideal job.
Not carping, just urging a little caution
As I said earlier, for all our sakes, I hope the Dems’ rush to judgement pays off
You’ve carped on about her various failings previously (and failings she no doubt has) – just allow yourself a little fist-bump, a graceful grateful twirl and a “Maybe, just maybe, it won’t be Trump after all”.
Thanks for the well meaning advice, but I’ll hold off on the Panglossian fist bumps for a while if you don’t mind.
If we have learned nothing else from the last decade we should at least have learned that voting for someone or something purely on the basis it is not someone or something else rarely ends well.
As I keep saying, I hope I’m wrong but quick fixes aren’t always the best fixes
Some friends have been excited about KH because they feel having a candidate from an ethnic minority translates as having the bloc vote of said ethnic minority. Which we know is more or less utter balloons. I share some ethnic characteristics with the late great Rashid Sanook for instance, but thats about it. I’d add to your point, @jaygee, that voting for someone based on their ethnicity and gender, as well as the fact that they’re not X or Y, is also not a great idea.
Personally, I do hope she walks it, to relegate the ogre to ignominy, continue to nurture growth, keep NATO reassured, to finally have a word with the ghastly Netanyahu, defuse and restructure immigration debate and give abortion rights the national visibility it deserves. The insanely demented tone coming from GOP hard-liners in last few days would suggest they’re quite rightly, frit
“voting for someone or something purely on the basis it is not someone or something else rarely ends well.”
That might have been true for Biden (apart from a pretty damn good record as prexy), but to say this of Harris is demeaning of her accomplishments and capabilities. If (e.g.) a man had the same history, maybe a white man, of the same age and as personally acceptable/attractive, I doubt anybody would say a vote for him would be based only on the fact that he was not (e.g.) Trump. His qualities would be recognised.
In the last election, there were voters who wouldn’t vote for Clinton because they “didn’t like her”, as fatuous a reason as voting for her because she wasn’t Trump. Harris is a perfectly acceptable candidate in her own right and shouldn’t be dismissed as the Not Trump option.
No advice given, Jaygee (who would take advice from me?) just thoughts on how we should be taking this as good news rather than “Let’s be careful.”
Surely, however incompetent KH turns out to be she would be far, far, far better than Trump? Let’s pray I’m not Wrong….
She’d be competent at worst, an inspired leader at best. Trump is far worse than incompetent (and doubly incontinent), he’s corrupt and vicious and doesn’t give a shit for anyone else. He doesn’t even aspire to competence.
A genuine question from the ignorant. If KH manages to beat Trump in November, is there anything to stop him running in 2028? Apart from small arms fire, that is.
He’ll be wearing nappies by then and accusing the Nurse of stealing his money….
He’s wearing nappies (“diapers”) already. The brand he uses is Depends. He is doubly incontinent – trebly if you count the farts. There is a lot of (er …) first hand testimony out there if you can (er …} stomach it.
I would expect another of those medical reports saying “in my professional opinion, he is the healthiest person I have ever met”.
Doctor Ronny: “The President’s Big Jobs are the loveliest diaper donuts I’ve ever seen!”
It suddenly seems that everyone in the British news media has a close knowledge of the Democratic Party, and can state with long nurtured authority that Josh Shapiro becoming VP nominee would swing the key state of Pennsylvania, or something similar, although for some reason they have never mentioned him before. It reminds me of when Taylor Swift started going out with Travis Kelce and everyone pretended to have heard of him and his team, and could say exactly what a tight end was (without giggling).
For British news media” read “The Afterword Forum”….
How dare you. I’ll have you know I subscribe to the New York Times. £2 every 4 months seeing as you ask.
Not only do I get the NYT Games and Athletic, I even skim the front page occasionally too.
Respect – from now on you’re our Resident US Politics go to…
My cheapo NYT sub ran out after two years – bastards even took away all my saved recipes.
Taylor Swift is going out with Travis Kelce? Who are these people?
People this side of The Big Pond dismissing her as “Can’t be any good because I’ve not heard of her doing anything, while Vice President” is ignoring the fact that VPs aren’t generally allowed to do anything that might overshadow their President even slightly, and that the news media over here is only interested in the President’s doings, unless a VP were to disgrace him/herself.
Exactly, all Biden did as VP was make gaffes, he still became president.
In a recent study, those elected to the office of President of the United States for the first time had no prior experience of being President and were therefore unqualified for the job. Also, all Vice Presidents – who have no power to do anything but hang around in case the President dies – were deemed “ineffectual” in office.
It feels like, with the failing, doddery Biden gone, that the emphasis is now on Trump and his appalling VP nominee, as the weak, unacceptable choice and that feels great right now. Harris is offering fresh inspiration and is seemingly hitting the target. I know we shouldn’t get carried away and no doubt there will be snags, but still.
Liz Truss about to appear on Fox News (Neil
Cavuto one of their more reasonable hosts). Could be interesting. See how they introduce her …. “Failed UK PM …..”. I think not. Lucrative gig I imagine for someone out of work.
Interview lasted 3m 38s. She was introduced as former PM and throughout inter view as Prime Minister (consistent with former presidents who are always referred to as President)
She didn’t promote pork or cheese but to discuss Kamala Harris and women in politics. She knew the got whistle of similarity of immigration inflation and failed promises to both US and UK as readings for electoral change.
She rubbished Harris as a non achiever.
Hilariously she said the Tories have a history of putting women in high position and how well “we” (I.e. she) had achieved.
I imagine the viewers lapped it up as it pushed all their buttons.
“She rubbished Harris as a non achiever.” Truss has always lived in a world of her own, bless her little lettuce head.
The polling is interesting.
Trump has been steadily losing ground to women, and the expected massive surge post-shooting hasn’t exactly materialized.
If I was running KH’s campaign, I ‘d be stealing Trump’s metaphorical clothes by running a few ads that aimed his jibes about JB being old and out of touch back at him
I’d like to see the Democrats fighting this election just as dirty as the Republicans.
But with some of the wit and charm that Trump and Vance could never achieve.
Mm. Wit and charm are words not often associated with Trumpists.
Trump’s utter lack of wit and charm is why he appeals to a voter base comprising those HRC foolishly referred to as “deplorables” in marginal flyover states she didn’t deem worthy of visiting.
In losing those Electoral College votes, HRC birthed Trump’s Presidency as sure as Corbyn served as an unwitting John the Baptist for Boris Johnson.
More of an “American Hitler” than Trump’s uncouth Eric Roehm, Vance possesses a lot more wit and charm than many here credit him with.
Win or lose this election, JDV will be running for POTUS in 2028 and almost certainly again in 2032.
We underestimate him at our peril.
We’ve seen these Shadow Trumps appear and disappear over the years, and good ol’ JD is just the latest American Hitler to stand at Trump’s shoulder for a while. There’ll always be someone waiting in the wings.
The gaffes and ridicule have already begun for JDV.
Here’s how Scary American Hitler is looking to American Nazis:
“JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party’s convention. He’s the first to have a net negative favorable rating. Not surprising given how weak he ran in Ohio in 2022. Far worse than the average Ohio Republican.”
Attribution might be useful here
X marks the spot.
Wow. I’d email the campaign office if I were you. This has probably not occurred to them 😏
Only a week ago, HP was loftily informing us JB was in it for the duration.
A couple of days after that he was advising us KH was nothing special.
His political insights are best weighed up with a large sack of Saxa
Like we’re all political experts on here, yeah right. We come up to the bar, offer up our profound insights based on reading that morning’s paper (and some guy we follow on Twitter X) and then wander off into the night. Always certain, sometimes Wrong, that’s us.
“You may want to dial it back a bit”, Jaygee. Amazingly enough, my opinion that Biden would hang in there wasn’t based on inside information, or my much-vaunted ability to see into the future. It was nothing more than an opinion – and when I have one, it’s necessarily “lofty” or “dismissive” if it doesn’t agree with your own. That’s just the way things are round here.
I never said that KH was “nothing special”, but thanks for crediting me with a loftily dismissive opinion I never had. I said something like I couldn’t remember why I’d been impressed by her when she got the job as veep. It was probably because I *liked* her, because I didn’t know much about her, and this isn’t enough.
I don’t claim to have “insights”, either – I leave the piercing analysis to sharper, better informed minds than my own.
As to giving you sources about poll results – what am I? Google? dOyurOWnRsrCh.
@h-p-saucecraft
Unreserved apologies for my inability to “dial it back a bit”, HP.
My lapse in posting etiquette is presumably a nasty side effect of the Alzheimers and Parkinsons Disease you rather tastelessly diagnosed me as suffering from on the “Absolute Shower” thread a few weeks back.
Same ailments doubtless also account for my unreasenable expectation that anyone posting quotes containing facts attribute their sources rather then insisting others “do their own research”.
Respectfully suggest further discussions on the above points be limited to PMs so as not to disrupt the board
Jeez, wouldn’t it be easier to punch HP on the nose and then give him a great big soppy hug? Or you could try that refuge of a scoundrel again…
You also replied to HPS but it was my comment about the email, not his.
Stupid reply indenting on this site.
This is the cover they should have run with. Genius.
Watched some CNN analysis last night. They reckon chances of a win for the Democrats have gone from about 3% to 40% with Harris * They stressed early days yet, but the VP candidate selection could be crucial to garner enough votes for the electoral college probably from northern states, but there is also a path to win via southern states. Democrats need to win popular vote by some margin to get in and how well a 3rd candidate does (mainly anti vaxxer RFK jr) could prove crucial.
* Mainly based on opinion polls analyzed by the excellent John King
Anybody watch the genuinely jaw dropping BBC4 Doc on the odious uber Republican Roger
Stone on BBC4 last night?
Still up on player and well worth watching if you’ve not already done so.
Yes. I started out thinking he is dangerous because as an intelligent man he can’t really believe the things he says are true, and he was simply letting useful idiots do his work.
Towards the end, when he was being cut loose by young Donald, it seemed he really does, which is scary in a different way.
He seemed literally possessed by some inner demon trying to escape its host, visible in the seemingly unconscious tics and grimaces that played over his face continuously.
Strange and scary that he was so close to, and advising, Presidents for so long.
The scenes where he packed his bag and lit out of his Washington DC hotel as January 6th unfolded. What a rat.
He did indeed look truly evil as his rage took hold in the final 15 minutes or so. He looked exactly like Fenella the Witch out of ‘Chorlton and the Wheelies’
Stone…. Pence….Trump
What is it with these guys and their hair?
Someone asked “Why do some British people not like Donald Trump?”
Nate White, an articulate and witty writer from England, wrote this magnificent response:
A few things spring to mind;
Trump lacks certain qualities which the British traditionally esteem.
For instance, he has no class, no charm, no coolness, no credibility, no compassion, no wit, no warmth, no wisdom, no subtlety, no sensitivity, no self-awareness, no humility, no honour and no grace – all qualities, funnily enough, with which his predecessor Mr. Obama was generously blessed.
So for us, the stark contrast does rather throw Trump’s limitations into embarrassingly sharp relief.
Plus, we like a laugh. And while Trump may be laughable, he has never once said anything wry, witty or even faintly amusing – not once, ever.
I don’t say that rhetorically, I mean it quite literally: not once, not ever. And that fact is particularly disturbing to the British sensibility – for us, to lack humour is almost inhuman.
But with Trump, it’s a fact. He doesn’t even seem to understand what a joke is – his idea of a joke is a crass comment, an illiterate insult, a casual act of cruelty.
Trump is a troll. And like all trolls, he is never funny and he never laughs; he only crows or jeers.
And scarily, he doesn’t just talk in crude, witless insults – he actually thinks in them. His mind is a simple bot-like algorithm of petty prejudices and knee-jerk nastiness.
There is never any under-layer of irony, complexity, nuance or depth. It’s all surface.
Some Americans might see this as refreshingly upfront.
Well, we don’t. We see it as having no inner world, no soul.
And in Britain we traditionally side with David, not Goliath. All our heroes are plucky underdogs: Robin Hood, Dick Whittington, Oliver Twist.
Trump is neither plucky, nor an underdog. He is the exact opposite of that.
He’s not even a spoiled rich-boy, or a greedy fat-cat.
He’s more a fat white slug. A Jabba the Hutt of privilege.
And worse, he is that most unforgivable of all things to the British: a bully.
That is, except when he is among bullies; then he suddenly transforms into a snivelling sidekick instead.
There are unspoken rules to this stuff – the Queensberry rules of basic decency – and he breaks them all. He punches downwards – which a gentleman should, would, could never do – and every blow he aims is below the belt. He particularly likes to kick the vulnerable or voiceless – and he kicks them when they are down.
So the fact that a significant minority – perhaps a third – of Americans look at what he does, listen to what he says, and then think ‘Yeah, he seems like my kind of guy’ is a matter of some confusion and no little distress to British people, given that:
Americans are supposed to be nicer than us, and mostly are.
You don’t need a particularly keen eye for detail to spot a few flaws in the man.
This last point is what especially confuses and dismays British people, and many other people too; his faults seem pretty bloody hard to miss.
After all, it’s impossible to read a single tweet, or hear him speak a sentence or two, without staring deep into the abyss. He turns being artless into an art form; he is a Picasso of pettiness; a Shakespeare of shit. His faults are fractal: even his flaws have flaws, and so on ad infinitum.
God knows there have always been stupid people in the world, and plenty of nasty people too. But rarely has stupidity been so nasty, or nastiness so stupid.
He makes Nixon look trustworthy and George W. look smart.
In fact, if Frankenstein decided to make a monster assembled entirely from human flaws – he would make a Trump.
And a remorseful Doctor Frankenstein would clutch out big clumpfuls of hair and scream in anguish:
‘My God… what… have… I… created?’
If being a twat was a TV show, Trump would be the boxed set.
Bravo!
Thanks @Gardener. Superb!
I think most countries have Trump-like populists and their far right support these days, with their national traits.
That’s just nitpicking etc
On the remarkable The Rest Is Politics US latest edition, Anthony Scaramucci suggests that after the Democrats’ National Convention, Trump will fire JD Vance and replace him with Nicky Haley. Then he himself will resign from the race, citing health issues (which will be bogus of course). Thus it will be an all-female election
Scaramucci suggests this will happen because Trump will see the writing on the wall – that he’s going to lose – and would rather resign than lose.
Food for thought…
Can’t see it myself as Trump embodies most if not all the key indicators of being the
worst kind of narcissistic sociopath.
If the events of 6 Jan, 2020 prove nothing else it’s that the Orange Jesus is not going to acknowledge, entertain or bow down in the face of facts that run counter to his entitled worldview.
Wouldn’t be surprised if he/his people had sought out Haley before settling on Vance for VP, though. Like the Dems’ Newsome, she’s probably pinning her hopes on her party’s chosen candidate either being totally out of her depth (Harris) or self-destructing (Trump/Vance).
Worth it just to see Goodness Gracious Me’s Indian Dad sketches come true:
– Nikki Hayley – Indian!
– Kamala Harris – Indian!
– J D Vance – married to an Indian!
I can’t see it. Election is possibly the only route out of his legal and financial troubles, and surely he loves the spotlight too much to surrender it voluntarily.
Yep. He’d rather see the country burn (or the world) than admit to failure.
The big concern with Trump is that you can’t do a deal with him because he lies.